tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-79395766628040505862024-02-19T04:40:23.361-07:00But It's a Dry ColdUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-40786484510613827842015-10-18T08:46:00.000-06:002015-10-18T08:58:19.338-06:00Last LegCanadians expect a few things from government: a strong economy, participation on the world stage, and a fair and just society at home. Over nine years Stephen Harper has proven unable to provide these things as Prime Minister.<br />
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Canada's international reputation is a tattered shell of what it was. Once rightly thought of as reasonable and progressive in global politics, we are now the country that reneges on international agreements like Kyoto, denies refugees, and no longer has any clout or respect at the United Nations. How far we have come from Lester Pearson getting the Nobel Peace Prize for using UN peacekeepers to resolve an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis" target="_blank">international crisis</a>. I wonder if Canadians still wear a maple leaf when backpacking across the world.<br />
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Canadians have always counted on our common values for our sense of identity. Being Canadian is less about where we came from or what our ancestors did, and more about who we are and what we are like. Our sense of fairness, openness, tolerance: universal health care, embracing multiple cultures. Our Charter of Rights and Freedoms is <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/the-charter-proves-to-be-canadas-gift-to-world/article4100561/" target="_blank">admired</a> across the world. We are proud of being a decent people. Stephen Harper has eroded this pride like a cancer. His willingness to use racial tactics to divide us against ourselves in the niqab debate and the "barbaric cultural practices" hotline are only the most recent examples. Canada is a less tolerant and more hateful country after nine years of Harper.<br />
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Yet somehow Harper is seen as a sound economist. A spate of endorsements, all from Postmedia-controlled <a href="http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/editorial-the-case-for-returning-the-conservatives-to-power" target="_blank">pap<span id="goog_2031400737"></span><span id="goog_2031400738"></span>ers</a>, were variations of how the Conservatives are the only party capable of managing the economy. (As in the spring Alberta election, all Postmedia papers were <a href="http://canadalandshow.com/article/postmedia-told-edmonton-journal-endorse-jim-prentice-says-edmonton-journal" target="_blank">directed</a> to endorse the conservative leader. These unsigned endorsements read like forced confessions and usually contradict the opinions of the local journalists.) The Globe and Mail <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/the-tories-deserve-another-mandate-stephen-harper-doesnt/article26842506/" target="_blank">endorsed</a> the Conservatives based on their fiscal record, while hilariously calling on Harper to resign.<br />
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It's time to kick this last leg of the stool out from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. They are not good at managing our money. They are not good at creating growth, or exports, or jobs. This <a href="http://www.pressprogress.ca/6_charts_show_stephen_harper_has_the_worst_economic_record_of_any_prime_minister_since_world_war_ii" target="_blank">article</a> shows Harper's dismal record in all economic areas as compared to all other Canadian prime ministers over the past several decades. The <a href="http://www.unifor.org/sites/default/files/documents/document/909-harper_economic_critique_eng_0.pdf" target="_blank">full report</a> that this article is based on also shows how Canada has lagged most other countries during Harper's tenure. He has mismanaged the economy while being credited for the opposite.<br />
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On this last day of a long and ugly campaign, media with a conservative agenda will continue to perpetuate the myth of Harper's able management of the economy. But the independent media and free thinking voters should be aware of the facts, not just the popular assumption. Harper has destroyed our reputation and identity as Canadians, and created a climate of fear and hatred. Without the false perception of his financial competence, he doesn't have a leg to stand on.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-85037713110119375202015-10-12T14:56:00.000-06:002015-10-13T03:31:42.683-06:00Easy as ABCWith one week to go until the federal election, the "Anyone but Conservative" vote is shaping up. In Canada's multi-party, first past the post system, talk of strategic voting always comes up. Until a better electoral system is implemented (such as the <a href="http://adrycold.blogspot.ca/2012/12/your-vote-counts.html" target="_blank">preferential ballot</a>), voters will have to decide how to make their vote count best. Strategic voting means trying to prevent particular party or candidate from winning by voting for someone who may not be your first choice. A vote for someone polling a distant third place is better spent on a candidate in a winnable position.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaX3nPRSad8_X5gXGGsQJq0pAN6sDuxud6W1amR2bMoKxN1AUxt4zNPlN8xl0TL7-RFHiu5ze49i0_af5Yq3SbyY1wKwxJX8wATvPpi0RfS-xZ8-z4m9pKjsDDWF2pUDrEOuwIU5ZR_ZS8/s1600/stephenharper.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaX3nPRSad8_X5gXGGsQJq0pAN6sDuxud6W1amR2bMoKxN1AUxt4zNPlN8xl0TL7-RFHiu5ze49i0_af5Yq3SbyY1wKwxJX8wATvPpi0RfS-xZ8-z4m9pKjsDDWF2pUDrEOuwIU5ZR_ZS8/s320/stephenharper.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Most Canadians (<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf" target="_blank">about 62%</a>) are voting to get rid of Harper; who gets voted in matters less. There are differences between the Liberal and NDP platforms, but they are close enough to each other and are both starkly different from the Conservatives (I'm substituting the Harper government's actions as their platform instead of what they promise they will do, because they tend to lie a lot). So, if most non-Conservative votes are transferable between the other parties, strategic voters should be monitoring the polls to avoid wasting votes on 3rd-place candidates with virtually no chance of winning.<br />
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In the wake of recent political change at the provincial level (an election also about turfing an out of touch and corrupt conservative regime that overstayed its welcome) a few Liberal and NDP candidates have realistic chances of success across Alberta. My own riding, Edmonton Riverbend, has never once elected a Liberal or New Democrat, but this could change with strategic voting. A <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/afl/pages/2721/attachments/original/1442866702/Environics_-_AFL_Edm_and_Leth_Federal_Ridings_Report_-_Sept_21-15.pdf?1442866702" target="_blank">poll</a> from mid-September has the Conservatives leading the 2nd place NDP 44 to 34 percent, with the Liberal candidate trailing at 18 percent. An unscientific tally of lawn signs confirms the NDP is way ahead of the Liberals. If that same 62% of ABC voters swings from supporting a distant third candidate to the non-Conservative with a realistic shot at winning, Edmonton Riverbend could elect its first progressive MP. Two other local ridings (Edmonton Centre and Edmonton Manning) have very similar breakdowns.<br />
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Ali Kashani did a <a href="https://medium.com/@kashani/there-is-actually-a-way-to-guarantee-harper-s-defeat-here-s-how-11ca79cec748" target="_blank">great job</a> of identifying sixteen ridings across Canada where NDP-Liberal vote-splitting threatens to give Conservatives victory. In addition, in all ridings - an even eight apiece for Liberals and NDP - the third place candidate is clearly behind the frontrunners. Dr. Kashani calls on the NDP and Liberal parties to cooperate for their own mutual benefit, by standing down in half these ridings in order to win the other eight. Despite the obvious strategic logic, it is unlikely either party would consider doing so. But individual voters certainly could affect the same result by voting strategically.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8_MhCeuI8ukZogGIaDxQxt3hvhLEUUtFiYWeysKnyA_aMkvKIdfwXJWXNv6Hv3md4jh-KpUR91NZqIJY6v2Mou3kiILD-mbAOxGTjsUnUw0NJW3dOcwqAQtKX4qrK_lVCGwTthhGoxX7L/s1600/anybody-but-harper.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8_MhCeuI8ukZogGIaDxQxt3hvhLEUUtFiYWeysKnyA_aMkvKIdfwXJWXNv6Hv3md4jh-KpUR91NZqIJY6v2Mou3kiILD-mbAOxGTjsUnUw0NJW3dOcwqAQtKX4qrK_lVCGwTthhGoxX7L/s320/anybody-but-harper.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Canadians who want to heave Steve should not nitpick about minor differences between Liberals and New Democrats. Find a local poll, or simply count lawn signs, and figure out who the two top contenders are. Then vote for the one who isn't Conservative. It's that easy.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-65592916606895581032015-05-25T10:10:00.003-06:002015-08-15T05:46:30.811-06:00Cabin LifeWe're preparing our cabin for sale. I was out there about a month ago to check things out and everything looked good. Then I went out last weekend and this had happened:<br />
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Probably due to the big snowfall we got the day after the election. That tree could not have fallen in a better direction.<br />
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I went out there yesterday to clean things up. Here's how things look after an afternoon with two chainsaws:<br />
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That wood should be ready to chop in two or three years. A present for the next owner.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-72577210869412220912015-05-01T13:06:00.000-06:002015-05-01T13:57:12.867-06:00Better Than FearIt's crunch time in the 2015 Alberta election (<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/abvote?src=hash" target="_blank">#abvote</a> for Twitter enthusiasts). Six surveys have reported over the past 24 hours (aggregated <a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html" target="_blank">here</a>), all with similar results: NDP hovering around 40% and flirting with a majority, Wildrose in second place in the mid-twenty percent range, and PC third in the low twenties (one poll did have PC edging out Wildrose). And yet there is skepticism about these numbers that goes beyond healthy. The lesson from 2012 was that polls are wrong and never count the PCs out.<br />
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Heading into the final weekend before Tuesday's vote, this is where the polls have finished, the fear is mongered, and the undecideds decide:<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“When I was with Redford, we made the decision to portray Danielle Smith and Wildrose as extreme,” said Stephen Carter, who worked for the former premier as campaign manager and chief of staff. “People are motivated more by fear than opportunity. The hyper-engaged know how they’re going to vote. The less engaged make their decision in last 72 hours to 72 seconds before marking their ballot. It is those people who can decide an election.” (<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/alberta-election-polls-painting-a-bleak-picture-for-prentices-tories/article23999141/" target="_blank">source</a>)</blockquote>
I believe the polls in 2012 were mostly accurate, but did not capture this successful 72-hour campaign of fear. Here is a poll tracker for Edmonton right up to the April 23rd election: notice the change of direction at the last minute for the Conservatives at the expense of the Liberals:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4V63Tsg1bv3xGbR3kALkUdvB2SP6cyWA2eVqFFMzLJsdfHlZQ5LnpINRmV3OHyO6YM19JHzFq8aEgGvixyoz49X7YtnYKk0jniUJ50vYhCeImAR9zcZ5vKfbmlV8PlvuiFgKSMkuQs44X/s1600/CGY.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4V63Tsg1bv3xGbR3kALkUdvB2SP6cyWA2eVqFFMzLJsdfHlZQ5LnpINRmV3OHyO6YM19JHzFq8aEgGvixyoz49X7YtnYKk0jniUJ50vYhCeImAR9zcZ5vKfbmlV8PlvuiFgKSMkuQs44X/s1600/CGY.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/04/final-alberta-projection-wildrose.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6QayE0NEp7uQSRgrN6TlUjtzd_6UM84LBl4sQ37f2VX7C6DmqvkMsy894Pf-dEPd4ek3qm56YYqkw95mUjBud7asGkqqXvus5icbXUCRUCsCPhW39nGVmAiRyxDVagjRZZr6CyCbKqr0Y/s400/EDM.PNG" height="400" width="359" /></a></div>
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And the same chart for Calgary. The trend here is even clearer over several days:<br />
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The only error from the days before the 2012 vote is the pollsters did not correctly extrapolate the trend, but called the election as if the final poll numbers would not keep changing. They did.<br />
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Now at the same point in 2015, the trend is defintely not the PC's friend:</div>
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<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX5slAFHD-bd16Z6Y-FaHgAylX3PY-aX8Qd7EVBQZxV4CATZ-D8kIauUmlk8fCZxP2oCR9FLzmgmW6DQfos6KxrNVMw1ENDO1pm6rVb_swXeHntU1P8Fo6fUy7RH5NU-5r_h9KCX4wWTA/s400/Provincial+Tracker.png" height="242" width="400" /></div>
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All the momentum is with the NDP, and Wildrose is holding steady. In 2012 the trends continued, in 2015 they would have to reverse course for the PCs to have any chance at government.<br />
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The fact that this is a three-way race means trying to scare voters away from the NDP could drive them to Wildrose, and vice-versa. In 2012 the PCs had a fairly moderate and likeable leader in Alison Redford (as far as we knew - the Sky Palace and fake airplane manifests were yet to come), but today the party is led by an old-boy banker who comes across as an arrogant asshole. The PCs have had the puck in their own end this entire campaign.</div>
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But the biggest difference today, and why I think the NDP will form government, is that people are no longer voting out of fear. We did that last time and it didn't work out. Had the Conservative party actually governed responsibly and without scandal or corruption, many of the Liberal and Wildrose votes they scared loose last time might be available to them again. Instead, people are simply fed up, and the prevailing emotion is rage. The prospect of a bunch of commies or rednecks in charge isn't nearly as frightening as another few years of entitled, unaccountable, corrupt Progressive Conservative mismanagement. That's how bad things have become. These people need to be punished, not given yet another chance. We're voting a government out, not in. It's more about the crush than the orange.</div>
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Maybe next time we'll be able to vote out of hope for the future. But in 2015, and with apologies to Jack Layton, anger is better than fear.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-83286863260089518122015-04-20T14:25:00.003-06:002015-04-21T09:15:47.950-06:00Spring CleaningRachel Notley did something very smart <a href="http://beaconnews.ca/blog/2015/04/alberta-ndp-platform-takes-page-peter-lougheed/" target="_blank">yesterday</a> - she claimed the legacy of the patron saint of Alberta politics, Peter Lougheed. She praised Lougheed's <a href="http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/09/17/Radical-Peter-Lougheed/" target="_blank">ideas</a> such as corporations paying their fair share of taxes, and acting like owners of our natural resources (and charging accordingly). Considered "extreme" by the current version of the Progressive Conservative party that Lougheed once led, these ideas now form part of the NDP platform while the PCs seem to have lost their vision.<br />
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In the 2012 election, the imminent threat of a Wildrose government forced a lot of progressive voters to support the PCs. Campaign Manager Stephen Carter <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/alberta-election-polls-painting-a-bleak-picture-for-prentices-tories/article23999141/" target="_blank">recently admitted</a> the PC strategy to scare moderate voters away from Danielle Smith in the last few days and hours before the vote, which somewhat explains the polls. What is different in 2015 is this is a three-horse race, and similar tactics to portray Wildrose as extremists may end up driving voters to the NDP instead. Also different in 2015 is three years of almost uninterrupted government scandal and incompetence, with a recent spate of undemocratic dealings in their own <a href="http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/03/31/turfed-tory-jamie-lall-says-he-still-has-no-clear-reason-why-party-dumped-him" target="_blank">candidate nominations</a>. The cherry on top was the budget which raised taxes, cut services and still managed to run a deficit, alienating everyone.<br />
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<br />
The status quo is not nearly as appealing as it was three years ago. The vibe is different now. People can nitpick the polling numbers and methodologies, but we're halfway through the campaign and the aura of inevitability, of invincibility, is gone from the PC party. Long-time party loyalists are <a href="http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/04/13/tory-executives-in-chestermere-rocky-view-step-down" target="_blank">quitting</a>. Calgary newspapers are <a href="http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/04/17/dont-sweat-the-small-stuff" target="_blank">attacking the PCs</a> like never before. Wildrose, having lost its photogenic leader and two-thirds of its members only a few months ago and now led by a virtual unknown, is in first place. Just how angry and disillusioned does a conservative voter have to be to choose that chaos over a traditional party?<br />
<br />
The NDP are working hard to present themselves as a moderate option (which they are: a centrist party anywhere else in Canada is considered leftist here) and are the most organized of the non-dynasty parties. We saw what happened four years ago when a national party let go of its more extreme ideas, presented itself as a reasonable alternative, and chose a charismatic leader: Jack Layton tripled the NDP seat count in Ottawa. Voters in Edmonton and Calgary recently elected young, progressive mayors. An urban-led Alberta orange crush does not seem so unthinkable all of a sudden.<br />
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<br />
True progressive conservatives are likely saddened and disappointed by what their party has become lately under Redford and now Prentice. After four decades in power, it resembles an authoritarian monster captured by corporations and more interested in getting elected than actually governing well. Had they been faithful to Lougheed's vision, the province would be a much more prosperous, free and democratic place to live. (And much richer, too. Read <a href="http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/01/15/If-Every-Norwegians-a-Millionaire-Whys-Alberta-in-Hock/" target="_blank">this</a> and weep, Albertans.) It seems that the party is beyond repair and won't be able to voluntarily fix itself, especially if dissenting voices continue to be silenced.<br />
<br />
The federal conservatives rebuilt themselves after Kim Campbell's annihilation. The liberals tore everything down following Michael Ignatieff's catastrophic leadership and are on the road back to relevance. Perhaps an electoral obliteration under Prentice is the only way for the progressive conservative party to truly clean house and renew their ideas and culture. A new coat of paint probably won't do it - an extreme renovation is required. Somehow <span style="text-align: center;">I think Peter Lougheed would agree.</span><br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-49705905418120699242015-04-15T15:04:00.000-06:002015-04-15T16:33:12.845-06:00Dr. Strange Bedfellows or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the WildroseThe Progressive Conservative party's 43-year stranglehold in Alberta might actually be coming to an end. The March budget was supposed to be so radical that it would require a new mandate. Although the actual budget wasn't as bad as advertised, it still provided cover for Jim Prentice to call an election anyway (and sidestep his own party's fixed-date law in doing so). But it was clear that this was a naked political calculation trying to catch the opposition unprepared with an unnecessary snap election. As of February all opposition parties were in some state of disarray: NDP having recently transitioned leaders, the Liberals with nobody in charge and losing candidates, and the Wildrose decimated by the defection of their leader and a majority of their members.<br />
<br />
The 2012 election was a very near miss for the Conservatives, where Wildrose were in first place right up until the weekend before the vote. The pollsters took a lot of blame, but I believe the polls were mostly accurate and did not capture a last-minute shift as progressive voters started to realize that four years of Premier Danielle Smith was about to actually happen. That option seemed worse than a pre-scandal Redford government.<br />
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<br />
The 2014 by-elections following Prentice's coronation signalled a shift may be coming. Even though the PCs won all four seats, only Prentice himself won easily. In Calgary-West the margin was a slim 315 votes, and a strong second-place finish by the Alberta Party split the vote in Calgary-Elbow. Also interesting was Edmonton-Whitemud, a conservative stronghold with a star candidate: Stephen Mandel won, but the PC vote share dropped from 60% in 2012 to 42% while the NDP more than doubled from 9% to 22%.<br />
<br />
And then came Danielle Smith's own nomination battle just a couple of weeks ago, with a very unexpected result. Highwood PC members expressed their anger by voting Smith out as their candidate. The event had a different feel to it, as if going off-script. Perhaps in 2015 nothing is inevitable in Alberta politics.<br />
<br />
The Progressive Conservatives have been in power unchallenged for far too long, and have become arrogant and unaccountable. The need to change governments has never been so obvious. In 2012, fear of the Wildrose won out over anger at the Tories, but in 2015 the desire for change might win the day. Currently the NDP look poised to win in Edmonton and a few other urban seats, Calgary is up in the air, and the Wildrose could take most of the rest. Today's numbers from <a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html">ThreeHundredEight.com</a> show no party likely to win the 44 seats needed to form a majority (Wildrose 35 / PC 24 / NDP 23). Any two of these three could join forces to form a minority government. Given the bad blood I have a hard time picturing the Wildrose and PCs cooperating long enough to form a coalition, even though politically they are closer to each other than either is to the NDP.<br />
<br />
But what about a Wildrose minority supported by the NDP?<br />
<div>
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Progressive Conservatives benefit from being positioned politically in the centre (for Alberta that is). Far right-wing voters fear the NDP, left-wing voters fear the Wildrose, and the thought of either being in power usually drives those votes to the PC devil they know. But a left-right minority government might balance the crazy just enough to allay fears for one election. The electorate would know that the Wildrose would not allow massive new taxes, and that the NDP would pull the plug before letting health care get slashed or any "lake of fire" social programs were passed. That might be enough yin-yang for Albertans to go all the way this time instead of getting cold feet at the last minute.<br />
<br />
I will be voting NDP because in my riding that is the best chance to unseat the conservative incumbent, and I'm naturally on the left end of the spectrum anyway. But if the Wildrose candidate had the best shot at beating PC, that's where I would park my vote this election. For me personally, a change - any change - is the top priority this time around.<br />
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A Wildrose government? What the hell - bring it on.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-40678697352690519572014-04-23T13:19:00.000-06:002014-04-23T16:42:46.047-06:00Doublethink<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any
fact that has become inconvenient, and then when it becomes necessary
again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long as it is
needed....<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
George Orwell, <i>1984</i></div>
</blockquote>
<br />
Wonderful news! The progressive folks in the provincial government have finally seen the light, and are committing to <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/schools/spaceforstudents/supportingamaturecommunity/" target="_blank">supporting mature communities</a>! To think that just a few years ago the standard procedure was to euthanize the weakest schools and transport the students out of their neighbourhoods and pack them into the next closest school. Now we have the promise of a brand new replacement school in one of three mature Edmonton neighbourhoods. After pouring all new money into modern schools in expanding suburban circles, the core gets some respect at last.<br />
<br />
This is quite a transformation, from indiscriminately closing its enrolment-challenged schools (always, always in central areas), to a two-year closure moratorium, to thinking about "amalgamations" last year, and now to this year's replacement schools to support older neighbourhoods, beginning with one of the "greater" Highlands, Lawton or Westmount areas. The new replacement school is projected to be a K-9 with a capacity around 600, at a cost of around $20 million. According to the website they <i>could</i> be modern, accessible, environmentally friendly and include space for day care or other services. And at the bottom of the page is a reassurance that "the replaced schools <i>could </i>continue to serve the current and future needs of the community in other ways."<br />
<br />
So, what's the problem?<br />
<br />
First, the plan involves closing three schools, and that's just for starters. This could be an annual thing, potentially three closures per year. On the EPSB website the word "close" does not appear once, but that's what is happening. The community ends up with two schools less than they started. The targeted schools in "greater" Westmount in particular are dozens of blocks apart, so depending on the replacement school's location, most students would likely be forced to travel outside their own actual neighbourhood. And there's no guarantee, likely no plan, as to what happens to the closed schools. They might sit vacant, or become storage facilities as other closed schools have in the past. That's a far cry from their former status as community hubs.<br />
<br />
Second, replacing three small or mid-sized schools with one large one falls into the same "bigger is better" fallacy that research shows is just not true (see <a href="http://adrycold.blogspot.ca/2012/10/stop-digging.html" target="_blank">here</a> for <i>much </i>more info on this). Smaller schools provide better educational outcomes for the same or less cost, are healthier, happier, and create a better sense of community. Creating one "big box" school out of three smaller ones has the same impact as a Walmart does on local merchants.<br />
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<br />
Third, in each area there is already a school that has a capacity over 600. The Alberta program allows for money to upgrade an existing school,
or build a new school, as long as three schools are "combined into" one. The EPSB <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/schools/spaceforstudents/" target="_blank">video</a> promptly forgets the existing school option: "There will be one new school to replace three schools in the chosen community." We should upgrade what we have and take some pride in our history whenever possible. Highlands and Westmount schools are both 100 years old and are grand architectural legacies that this city desperately lacks. One of my favorite schools in Edmonton is John A. McDougall in an inner-city area just north of downtown. This school was built in 1913 and modernized about ten years ago for a little over $5 million. It includes all the perks of a brand new school (elevator, wrap-around space, environmental design, modern science lab) but with the unique character of a heritage building. Too often we throw away what we could easily improve.<br />
<br />
Fourth, EPSB administration is up to its old tricks by fudging enrolment numbers to make things look worse than they truly are. There are at least three different measures of a school's capacity. One is the provincial school capacity, which is simply based on the square footage of the entire building; this is usually the highest number and most often used when the school board wants to make a school look like it's underutilized. The second is ACOL, which is based on class sizes as recommended by the Albert Commission on Learning. This method counts the number of rooms and applies the <a href="http://education.alberta.ca/department/ipr/archive/commission/report/reality/school/implement.aspx" target="_blank">ACOL suggested guideline</a> (for instance, a K-3 room can accommodate 17 students, grades 4-6 should have no more than 23 per room, etc.). This formula excludes gyms, but does include all special purpose rooms like carpentry shops or music rooms. The ACOL number tends to be a little more reasonable. A third method is the <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/schools/register/randomselection/" target="_blank">Optimal Enrolment Limit</a>, which as I understand it is based on feedback from the school's principal as to how many student will actually fit regardless of floorspace or number of rooms, and is only calculated for schools that have to restrict enrolment. OEL is the most realistic, and usually significantly lower than the other two metrics.<br />
<br />
Only two of the nine schools have public OEL numbers: Montrose and RJ Scott. On the <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/schools/spaceforstudents/greaterhighlandsarea/" target="_blank">EPSB site</a> Montrose is shown to have a capacity of 315 (provincial capacity number) and an enrolment of 199 (this is using the provincially adjusted student enrolment figure from the school's <a href="http://files.epsb.ca/schoolprofiles/latest/151.pdf" target="_blank">profile</a> pdf). So the utilization rate is 63% - not great. But if we use the much lower <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/media/epsb/schools/registerforschool/FinalEnrolmentLimitsfor20142015.pdf" target="_blank">OEL</a> capacity number of 175, the utilization is 114% and the school is now over capacity. Running the numbers for RJ Scott show a similar inflation, from the "Supporting a Mature Community" claim of 52% utilization as opposed to an OEL-calculated 85%. Official capacity and utilization statistics are at best suspicious, and more likely intentionally deceitful, and this is nothing new from EPSB administration trying to build a case for school <strike>closure</strike> replacement.<br />
<br />
[In 2008 Ritchie Junior High's official capacity was at one point listed at 900 going into a closure review. The public school closed and reopened the next year as école Joseph-Moreau, which the Francophone school board considers close to capacity at 260. It's the same building.]<br />
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<br />
Look at how the plan is described in a recent <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/edmonton/Staples+happy+twist+school+closures/9741802/story.html" target="_blank">article</a> by a journalist who seems to have drank the kool-aid (my emphasis): <br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
One aging Edmonton neighbourhood is about to <b>hit the revitalization jackpot</b>.<br />
<br />
The
Edmonton public school board has come up with a short list of three
older neighbourhoods, with one of them to be <b>awarded </b>the one, new K-9
school that the Alberta government has allotted to be built in
Edmonton’s core.<br />
<br />
Highlands, Westmount and Beverly/Rundle Heights are the three <b>finalists</b>.<br />
<br />
School
board trustees will select the <b>winning neighbourhood</b> in June. In that
community, three older, smaller and <b>massively underutilized</b> schools will
be shut. The neighbourhood kids will all go to the new $20 million-plus
school for 650 to 800 students. The new school is to be built starting
this summer and to open in 2016.</blockquote>
<br />
I'll bet after reading this article community residents will show up to the public meetings
giddy with hope that their area will be the lucky one chosen. But nothing has changed except the extreme positive spin. The word "replacement" is optimistic, right? Like "renewal" or "revitalization". Stripping the school board's website of the word "closure" does not change the fact that three schools will close under this plan. The end result of less schools in the core is the same as before the moratorium. And when you falsify the numbers on top of spinning black into white, then we are really at the point of doublethink. Ignorance is strength.<br />
<br />
Is there an option to modernize one (or why not two or even three) of these schools without closing any? Because the province is - as usual - holding the purse strings, it's unlikely that the program is negotiable. Despite having a big new shiny toy, the chosen community will not benefit from this replacement school plan if its smaller schools are shut down. If it were up to me the school board would refuse the money if it required schools to be closed. A much better solution would be to (a) acknowledge the research supporting the value of small schools to the student, the community and the bottom line, (b) re-invest the same dollars in our existing old, beautiful buildings instead of building new, (c) try to fix struggling programs and find creative enrolment solutions instead of walking away, (d) just give local school boards the funds instead of playing political games, and (e) be honest with the numbers and communications in general.<br />
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We need to think twice about this one.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-53366894304878311732013-08-29T16:49:00.000-06:002013-08-29T16:58:07.696-06:00Sprawl? What Sprawl?With about seven weeks to go before the Edmonton civic election, the first mayoral candidates forum took place on Tuesday. It was attended by the three main candidates, and presented by the Urban Development Institute Greater Edmonton Chapter and the Canadian Homebuilders' Association. Unsurprisingly the subject of urban sprawl came up. Here's Kerry Diotte's take on it:<br />
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<br />
Let's clear this up right now, shall we?<br />
<br />
Urban sprawl is generally thought of as a low-density development with a great dependency on cars to get around. Lots of detached bungalows spaced well apart, two-car garages, no sidewalks, and driving on a freeway is how you get anywhere. Cities that grew before the invention of the car rarely have a sprawl problem; when your main and likely only mode of transportation is walking, you don't want things too far apart. Also, cities that have natural geographic boundaries are forced to develop more densely - think of Vancouver or San Francisco, each surrounded by water on three sides.<br />
<br />
Conversely, cities that have no natural limitations, and that grew in earnest in the twentieth century, are much more likely to sprawl. Pretty much every city in the western half of North America fits this description, including Edmonton. Of Canada's top six metros, Edmonton is the sprawliest:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>Neighbourhood density</b>: according to the <a href="http://pubs.pembina.org/reports/coolest-cities-technical-report.pdf" target="_blank">Pembina Institute</a>, Edmonton has the lowest percentage of residents living in high-density areas at 0.4% compared to an average of 6.2% and over 15% in Montreal. Medium-density residency is similar at a national low of 29%. 64% of Torontonians live in medium-density neighbourhoods, and the average is 47%. Which means over 70% of Edmonton lives the low-density lifestyle, highest in Canada and well above the average of 47%.</li>
<li>Similar data from a poster at <a href="http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=138325" target="_blank">SkyscraperPage</a>, who actually drilled into the census data and graphed the densities for each city. The steeper the curve, the more dense areas exist in the city. </li>
<li><b>Commuting</b>: Edmontonians drive the most of the six cities. They are the least likely to take public transit, least likely to bike, and the least likely to walk.</li>
<li><b>Population density</b>: Edmonton has the lowest population per square kilometer, about half that of Calgary, one quarter the average and seven times less than Toronto.</li>
<li><b>Roads per capita</b>: Ottawa spoils Edmonton's perfect streak with 236 people per kilometer of road, compared to roughly 260 for Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver. Toronto's roads serve about four times as many people. [Given the Ottawa and Vancouver results, I'm a little suspicious of this last statistic - there is no single consistent source for road network kilometers.]</li>
</ul>
Apart from the numbers, I can add that having lived in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Edmonton, this is truly the sprawl city of champions. Every city has some element of low density growth as it expands, but the most livable ones have lots of high and medium density options as well. I can think of only two or three neighbourhoods in Edmonton where you can live reasonably without a car. <br />
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Whether you believe urban sprawl is good or bad, Edmonton obviously has it in spades and to pretend it doesn't exist should disqualify Mr. Diotte as a credible candidate. I understand Karen Leibovici made some similar sprawl-denial remarks at the same event, but I am unable to confirm this. Don Iveson has maintained a blog during his six years on council so his <a href="http://doniveson.ca/2009/11/14/the-way-we-growsprawl/" target="_blank">views</a> are quite transparent.<br />
<br />
I personally think urban sprawl (and its opposite, smart growth) should be the main issue in the election. The more we sprawl we allow, the less compact of a city we build, we create the following problems for ourselves:<br />
<ul>
<li>increased costs for car ownership and fuel</li>
<li>increased pollution </li>
<li>isolation of those who cannot drive</li>
<li>longer commutes are associated with mental health issues</li>
<li>physical health problems which could be avoided with increased walking or cycling</li>
<li>more infrastructure to build and maintain (Edmonton repairs nearly half a million potholes each year - that's about one every ten meters of road.)</li>
<li>fewer densely-populated areas challenge local businesses like restaurants and shops</li>
<li>discourages diversity</li>
<li>prevents human interaction (a key element for Richard Florida's creative class)</li>
</ul>
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<img alt="" border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJdB9A5WqGmtN1fMruywUUxHYXbCchliYtlt_gRStsm07enee89Z05s-WQJA9hzmn4FuYAXd1EAH7NTj2qxFw_28WgHMqLai7wlGEgaJ1a6Zy3wzE-k7VQQDw6vouTqGbZjuQ83VOtc5Bk/s400/130.jpg" title="You guessed it: Edmonton's Henday Drive" width="400" /></div>
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Low-density, auto-centric sprawl is inefficient, expensive, unhealthy, uneconomic and inhuman. We can't simply pretend it's not a problem, or worse, that it doesn't exist. It does, and it's going to cost Edmonton greatly as young people take their talents to more livable cities. Unless we elect ourselves a mayor who gets it.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-5143463240241488092013-06-28T16:09:00.002-06:002013-06-28T16:09:24.106-06:00More Crap<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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After decades of the "bungalow and bunker" school of architecture in Edmonton, where aesthetics, form and style were low priorities, mayor Stephen Mandel demanded in 2005 that we build "no more crap". Interesting and beautiful buildings did not spring up overnight, but at least design became part of the urban conversation.<br />
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Now we have a rare opportunity to redevelop eight acres of land close to downtown where the Molson brewery was a landmark for years. The proposed design is a real letdown for urbanists and anyone who has a bit of vision for Edmonton. The problem is that the proposal is a glorified strip mall that caters to cars.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9sIdsm5jhPWxzOve5B38Padnzsw3S9itQoFHiCwQD4y0vztOWLaBq4GUam2ZsYlKRgxYzBkvhu_IK-ru0G1eG-C02qJGHCtAasfPG9XXuUv4AUV41l8Q6rgS_6L5ecQA_gBKBgqSzBhaa/s1232/Molson-Crosstown02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9sIdsm5jhPWxzOve5B38Padnzsw3S9itQoFHiCwQD4y0vztOWLaBq4GUam2ZsYlKRgxYzBkvhu_IK-ru0G1eG-C02qJGHCtAasfPG9XXuUv4AUV41l8Q6rgS_6L5ecQA_gBKBgqSzBhaa/s640/Molson-Crosstown02.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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It looks amazingly like the Oliver Square West shopping mall
literally right next door. Perhaps the new development is intended to be
an extension of it. Here's the current mall on the north side of 104 Avenue - the empty lot on the far left where the Molson/Crosstown mall will go.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cKQU_9yRvL4xui69paWjlwuqEZhfX8q4VcduWdeoOEwShwhpPE2yOD_l8ibnr5Ues-hQhlF0zDmpceTx4OZtT2QTTe-LpjUCZl8lJQhdJrcqDhyKYw7Kz_uQNrKQW5eR-DVha0dUUrcy/s1600/Oliver+Square+West02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cKQU_9yRvL4xui69paWjlwuqEZhfX8q4VcduWdeoOEwShwhpPE2yOD_l8ibnr5Ues-hQhlF0zDmpceTx4OZtT2QTTe-LpjUCZl8lJQhdJrcqDhyKYw7Kz_uQNrKQW5eR-DVha0dUUrcy/s640/Oliver+Square+West02.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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If there was one chance to do something different and break the mould, this is it. The Oliver community is active and progressive, and wants a pedestrian and bike friendly development. Oliver is already the closest thing Edmonton has to a walkable neighbourhood, and is an easy stroll or ride from downtown or 124th street. The kicker is that this development is also the site of a future LRT station: Molson/Crosstown is an ideal candidate for transit-oriented development. Instead we're about to approve and build more crap.<br />
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If you want to get more information or find out how to make a difference before this gets approved, check out the <a href="http://www.olivercommunity.com/molson_crosstown" target="_blank">Oliver Community League</a>.<br />
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Here are a few more illustrations from the developers: <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1usYBx8SWUKbPUDN05mpniwxK8w9i2mOr4fjH0clZQwJxHbSabj86YKqidpkk3QQOfdi1KNwg_Z4SZpDoyVImMJpmWMP_UmDvWMttBNxJSAhCsGtty-Rw7rX6iOb62EPIo4qs7WyzLYW8/s1214/Molson-Crosstown01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1usYBx8SWUKbPUDN05mpniwxK8w9i2mOr4fjH0clZQwJxHbSabj86YKqidpkk3QQOfdi1KNwg_Z4SZpDoyVImMJpmWMP_UmDvWMttBNxJSAhCsGtty-Rw7rX6iOb62EPIo4qs7WyzLYW8/s640/Molson-Crosstown01.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Note that there is no connection between the sidewalk and the mall. Pedestrians would have to jump over a flowerbed to get in.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOL98Bg3FeOFTBCM1NGHpbm5onsSyCFZmkvi2ITGNtJXFCJvN-jXDqZ5-ANTWwPsnpnz7agbViYV2I-oszzO4jJq-XUUx7ajgZoTK-bt8WYNkSICXMCGL3ZBN7Vn2g_FXya2PWNxeUvKju/s1224/Molson-Crosstown03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOL98Bg3FeOFTBCM1NGHpbm5onsSyCFZmkvi2ITGNtJXFCJvN-jXDqZ5-ANTWwPsnpnz7agbViYV2I-oszzO4jJq-XUUx7ajgZoTK-bt8WYNkSICXMCGL3ZBN7Vn2g_FXya2PWNxeUvKju/s640/Molson-Crosstown03.jpg" width="640" /></a><i>This one reinforces the idea that cars are the centre of attention.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOL98Bg3FeOFTBCM1NGHpbm5onsSyCFZmkvi2ITGNtJXFCJvN-jXDqZ5-ANTWwPsnpnz7agbViYV2I-oszzO4jJq-XUUx7ajgZoTK-bt8WYNkSICXMCGL3ZBN7Vn2g_FXya2PWNxeUvKju/s1224/Molson-Crosstown03.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkdfdXdNSxcC4WAXA16R6PIOagog9NGtv129y9Eo30obYTxOsZFERf6AR-d40pllqkDgc75xclXrHrNoG70O1xiE6_FZBFe5vkxatMZ8gxgKMNxdnKr1vXVuQxAqoztBj6wLJ6Fg_EKkLI/s1221/Molson-Crosstown04.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkdfdXdNSxcC4WAXA16R6PIOagog9NGtv129y9Eo30obYTxOsZFERf6AR-d40pllqkDgc75xclXrHrNoG70O1xiE6_FZBFe5vkxatMZ8gxgKMNxdnKr1vXVuQxAqoztBj6wLJ6Fg_EKkLI/s640/Molson-Crosstown04.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>My favorite: stay in your glass enclosure, humans, while the cars roam free.</i><br />
<br /><a href="http://www.olivercommunity.com/molson_crosstown" target="_blank"></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-8897739953732633602013-05-02T17:48:00.000-06:002013-11-22T17:00:33.209-07:00DetroitificationThis week a list of new schools was announced by the Alberta government, possibly as a distraction from the PC's complete bungling of the Remand Centre strike. The announcement was spread over several days for maximum self-promotional effect. Like a doctor who refuses to treat terminal patients, the provincial government is there to deliver only good news, and leaves the unpopular and dismal work of school closures to the school boards.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXHGlegfApQG4WoHmOk_6-rQXW8ejSs5zR7Wp7mKLoSa36lpKPuJwnd-v9hxCc2nnpq1xvwJRFTn2eK0rZrjLkhdWzp65fzye-SvoXA3Oer5KoDZyVHO_e4RdKQn9aP30_UJHZt2Iu8N4S/s1600/1297410990071_ORIGINAL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXHGlegfApQG4WoHmOk_6-rQXW8ejSs5zR7Wp7mKLoSa36lpKPuJwnd-v9hxCc2nnpq1xvwJRFTn2eK0rZrjLkhdWzp65fzye-SvoXA3Oer5KoDZyVHO_e4RdKQn9aP30_UJHZt2Iu8N4S/s400/1297410990071_ORIGINAL.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Young families who migrated to the suburbs will be pleased, as this is where virtually all of Edmonton and Calgary's new schools will be located. Now they will only have to drive their kids a few blocks instead of halfway across the city. And likely these schools will be full when they open.<br />
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In a very short-sighted way, it makes sense to put the schools where the children live. But for those like myself concerned about the insidious effects of low-density sprawl, this is feeding the beast. People who moved to the outer ring of the city are being rewarded with brand new schools that are likely to be far more modern and well-heated than most of the older schools they will draw students from. At the same time, maintenance of the mature schools has been neglected. As a parent looking for what's best for your children, would you move to an area with a crumbling school and declining enrollment at risk of being closed, or would you choose a brand new modern school that will be there long after your children graduate? The incentives are currently stacked towards moving families ever outward from the city. <br />
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Thinking it through a bit more, what happens when the outward growth hits the city limits? Edmonton is almost there now. What happens is the population jumps over to adjacent communities on the other side of the border. As the population leaves the city, tax revenues are lost, enrollment numbers shift from the city school board to the adjoining towns, more and more central areas stagnate or decline, and basically you get Detroit: the first North American city to shrink its population under one million. When cities stop supporting their core, then the outward migration begins. Detroit proper had a population of close to two million in the 1950's, and it is currently less than half that. In contrast, the greater Detroit area, including all the bedroom communities that people moved to over the years, has grown over the same half-century from roughly 3 to 4 million.<br />
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On the other hand we have Vancouver, which has over the past dozen or so years made a priority of supporting services and institutions that serve its central residents, including families. This means zoning more 3-bedroom condos, providing transit options, public spaces, and most importantly keeping downtown schools open. It worked. Vancouver's city population has kept pace with the growth of its surrounding towns. Vancouver's downtown schools suffer from "<a href="http://vanopolis.ca/post/46360904975/disgraceful-overcrowding-in-vancouvers-downtown" target="_blank">disgraceful overcrowding</a>." Edmonton's inner city schools are neglected until they close, while the overcrowding happens at the edge of the city.<br />
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Like dropping a stone in a pond, Edmonton's population is rippling wider and farther from the centre, leaving an equally expanding empty spot in the middle. Families have a carrot drawing them further into the suburbs, and a stick preventing many from locating in a mature neighbourhood. If there is no awareness or will to change, the detroitification of Edmonton will continue: everyone relocate ever outward in an increasing orbit around a growing black hole, taking their vitality, diversity and money with them.<br />
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<br />
Here's a few things that would improve the situation:<br />
<br />
<b>1) Understand the full, long-term costs of building low-density sprawl.</b><br />
And not just the demographic impacts discussed here. There are social aspects as well, most apparent in the isolation of children and seniors, or anyone without ready access to a car. Car-dependency is also turning out to be extremely bad for our physical and mental health. The actual bricks-and-mortar infrastructure is expensive and inefficient; we create more road-miles (and more potholes a few years later) per person as we sprawl. A water main in a dense neighbourhood that serves 10,000 residents costs the same as one in a suburb with 500 houses.<br />
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<b>2) Commit to providing options for living in the core, especially for families.</b><br />
This is not to force people to live in denser areas, but to allow them the choice. Provide the option of a variety of housing (smaller footprints than in the burbs, but not all apartment buildings either), easy walking and biking access to shopping and public spaces, and amenities for singles, couple and families of all ages. <br />
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<b>3) Give the school board control over all infrastructure funding, including the building of new schools.</b><br />
I would also give the city veto power over the location of new schools and maybe even school closures as well, to ensure urban planning goals are not undermined. These two levels of government need to work hand in hand, not at cross-purposes.<br />
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<b>4) Prioritize repairs and upgrades to existing schools over building new schools.</b><br />
This is an extension of the last point, and has already been acted upon by the Edmonton Public School Board. In principal at least, since currently all the board can do is prioritize maintenance and new school projects in its capital plan; the provincial government has final say on which projects go forward. Except in the largest of projects, modernizations are generally much less expensive than new buildings.<br />
<br />
<b>5) Recognize that a small elementary school has immense value to a neighbourhood.</b><br />
Having an elementary school in the neighbourhood does more than allow children to get some exercise to and from school every day (which is very important too) - it builds a connection to the community for the child and the family. It develops citizenship and local pride in a way that commuting to a school away from home does not. Again, small schools do not have to cost more per student than big box institutions. And again, learning outcomes are usually better in small schools, regardless of the number of options offered. Reinvestment in an existing school can anchor a mature neighbourhood and promote infill and revitalization.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-82964777403834016132013-03-05T17:14:00.003-07:002013-03-09T06:01:59.147-07:00ShuffleInteresting times over at the Edmonton Public School Board. EPSB superintendent Edgar Schmidt recently stated he will be leaving his position at the end of summer. And just yesterday he was in the news again, this time to announce that two suburban schools just opened in 2010 are overcrowded and will be <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Johnny+Bright+Esther+Starkman+schools+offer+only+next/8047618/story.html" target="_blank">relocating</a> their grade 8 and 9 students next fall.<br />
<br />
The grade shuffle at Esther Starkman and Johnny Bright schools does not appear to have any ulterior motive other than the schools are at capacity and something has to give. Changing to a more customary K-6 elementary school would probably have been a better choice, except that closing three consecutive grades would be considered a school closure under provincial law, and would automatically trigger a full review with all the hilarity that ensues. Even if parents and community were onside (which would require a track record of trust and partnership), a closure review could not be completed within the current school year. I wonder if they can legally close grade 7 next year - maybe.<br />
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Looking at each school's <a href="http://districtsite.epsb.ca/root/SchoolViability.cfm" target="_blank">profile</a>, enrollment is highest in the entry level grades (kindergarten through grade 2) which means the schools are serving a lot of young families, and both schools will easily remain full without junior high students. And here is the point: poor research and planning by the school board caused them to underestimate the elementary-level population and demand in these neighbourhoods, opening the schools to more grades than they should have, which in turn is causing the current messy reorganization. The census age breakdown and projections in these neighbourhoods (readily available online) would have shown that these two new schools could have been originally designated as K-6. This might have not been popular for the grade 7-9 students in those neighbourhoods, but now those same kids are having to relocate in the middle of their junior high career. Unchecked urban sprawl is a major factor, plus the provincial funding formula that penalizes perceived unused space may have encouraged EPSB to pack in as many grades as possible from day one, but I'll leave those issues out of this discussion for now. I will say that young families shopping for a house may want to consider communities that already have schools. Adequate planning and prioritizing student stability ahead of utilization rates might have avoided this disruptive scramble. <br />
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A couple of examples of school board ineptitude. When closing schools, the administration puts together their evidence including population statistics and projections. In the two closure processes I was involved with, the EPSB numbers were way off - the neighbourhood they said was in decline has grown and revitalized in the past few years. The bad data is due either to incompetence or was intentionally massaged in order to help build the administration case for closure (probably a little of both). Another one from personal experience is the ongoing mismanagement of the Spanish program my daughters are in. EPSB's failure to extend the program past junior high is resulting in a high attrition rate after grade six as families lose faith in the future of the program. This is despite strong and increasing entry-level enrollment. In contrast, the Edmonton Catholic Spanish program started the same year now has double the number of students as EPSB (in a district less than half the size), thanks mainly to planning and support. Calgary Public's Spanish program was started about the same time, and is now almost ten times the size as ours, because of proper planning and support. Both programs will graduate grade 12s this year, while EPSB continues to wait for sufficient demand.<br />
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The Edmonton Public School Board has developed a stagnant bureaucratic culture that rewards subservience and discourages initiative. In this way it is like any organization that doesn't go through some kind of renewal from time to time: administrators don't work or think too hard, and never challenge or get challenged. All the negative civil service stereotypes apply. I doubt employees who are used to hustling in a more dynamic and entrepreneurial work
environment would have been surprised by enrollment numbers that were obvious from the demographics years ago, or would sit around waiting for success while the competition is out there making it happen. There is a tough provincial budget coming up and teachers are on the chopping block, but I think we could save money more judiciously by cutting a few layers of fat from school board middle management instead. I doubt we would notice the impact. <br />
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[One other tangent to the story is this little euphemism from the <a href="http://news.epsb.ca/2013/03/accommodation-plans-for-esther-starkman-and-johnny-bright/" target="_blank">EPSB website</a>: "Students attending the school, who live outside the attendance area or are non-resident to our District, will not be able to stay at the school." The non-resident to our District part means Catholic students, of which there are a couple of hundred to be displaced. It would have been more fair if declared Catholic students had been grandfathered, where those already enrolled allowed would be allowed to stay at their schools. But I think EPSB is justified in not wanting to pay to educate students whose families' taxes are supporting the Edmonton Catholic School Division. Having a separate Catholic schools system is a particular Canadian
historical legacy which often results in inefficient duplication (in
buildings, transportation, staff, just about everything). One interesting aspect of Edmonton Public's district of choice is the emergence of religious alternative programs within the public system. I sort of disagree with this under a general separation of church and state philosophy, but on the other hand it might pave the way for an eventual merging of two government-funded school systems without either one losing its purpose or identity. A unified school system would at least avoid some of the ugliness of ostracizing a group of children based on criteria that would otherwise be illegal.]<br />
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As the most recent episode of administration bungling unfolds, Edgar Schmidt announced his <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Superintendent+Edmonton+Public+Schools+retire/8014945/story.html" target="_blank">retirement from the district</a> effective August 31st. I've spoken to him once in person and a couple of times from a microphone, and followed his time as superintendent off an on; he seems like a decent and intelligent person committed to doing his job well. But he is a company man. He became superintendent in 2007 in the wake of the dismissal of his predecessor Lyall Thomson. Mr. Thomson was an outsider, recommended by a third-party executive search firm, <a href="http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/columnists/story.html?id=7ee2fcda-e5e9-409d-b327-cbe68a31356e" target="_blank">hired and then promptly fired</a> without any public explanation. The majority of the board of trustees who fired him were largely old-guard career educators. Rumour had it that Thomson wanted to do things a little differently, which clashed with the EPSB culture in 2007 as it would today. Schmidt was promoted from within at least in part to ensure no more challenges to that culture.<br />
<br />
The current crop of trustees has been markedly different from previous boards. By and large they are more responsive, communicative and consultative than before. While the adminstration culture has not changed much, the board that governs it has, and consequently EPSB has been able to make positive progress on a lot of important issues. But the future direction of the public school system is uncertain. There are at least four sitting trustees who will not be running for re-election in 2013, including two or three who are more on the progressive end of the spectrum. Will EPSB continue building bridges with city and provincial counterparts to value schools and education in the context of our overall society, or will it revert to its recent history of isolated, dissent-intolerant, school-closing reactionaries?<br />
<br />
This board will decide who the next superintendent will be shortly before the election in October. The next superintendent could make all the difference: a visionary with strong leadership skills could reinvigorate the public school district. Without a doubt this person needs to come from outside the existing administration to make a real impact, maybe even from another profession entirely. It was bold of Edmonton voters in 2010 to elect a number of trustee candidates from outside the system, based on their ideas and their passion. Look how far those outsiders have run with their mandate. Now it's time for them return the favour and shuffle things up with a bold new superintendent with a fresh perspective, who can breathe new life and energy into an organization that sorely needs it.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-8146204084756976702012-12-13T15:01:00.000-07:002013-01-16T11:49:56.492-07:00Your Vote CountsDoes it? Ever since we moved from an older Edmonton neighbourhood to much more conservative suburbia, from the garage in the back to the garage in the front, I haven't felt like my vote really mattered at all. I tend to vote on the left side, or what is now usually called "progressive". In the past few years I have voted for Liberal, NDP, Green and Alberta Party candidates, none of which had a snowball's chance of winning. It gets a little demoralizing lining up at the voting station knowing more or less who will win, especially if it's not who you are voting for. My voting strategy is usually some combination of supporting the candidate most likely to beat the incumbent (ie: polling second to the conservative) and supporting a party's overall vote count in order to provide them some kind of encouragement for the next election.<br />
<br />
Canada's first-past-the-post system means that the more parties and candidates there are, the less percentage of the votes is likely to be required to win. Almost half of the last federal election seats were won with a less than half the votes, including a couple where the winner got less than one-third. With 40% of the vote Harper won 54% of the seats and a majority government; the Liberals won 11% of the house of commons with 19% of the total vote. The current system ensures the winners win disproportionately more seats than the popular vote indicates.<br />
<br />
Sometimes a majority government, even one with a mandate from a minority of voters, is not such a bad thing. We look on in amusement at gridlocked and often ineffective systems in other countries resulting from multiple parties and some kind of coalition minority government. But the Canadian experience has been mostly positive: minority governments here are by and large effective and balanced, and tend to govern more reasonably under the constant threat of being toppled. A more proportional system should allow for the number of elected officials to resemble the popular vote, which would virtually guarantee minorities based on current polls. A succession of minority governments is not really desirable, as it can lead to voter fatigue if the co-operation isn't there and coalitions can't hold. Plus, I'm not sure how a proportional voting system (like <a href="http://www.fairvote.ca/" target="_blank">Fair Vote</a>) would even work - would you still vote for a local candidate, or just a national party?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3DE9C3lDPRCh5pjyPmo9kiN-QJ-ogTY8nI7gG3ZL5S14Ehkwraf6M-JB0aijT4JIj5EtLi0i6QgUbNHjY5Y3HtmwGWbYFS5-r4fmvB3z8HQyAonhm-fgG-VYvuW8iPA1gnlHL7txW-Llw/s1600/libdem.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3DE9C3lDPRCh5pjyPmo9kiN-QJ-ogTY8nI7gG3ZL5S14Ehkwraf6M-JB0aijT4JIj5EtLi0i6QgUbNHjY5Y3HtmwGWbYFS5-r4fmvB3z8HQyAonhm-fgG-VYvuW8iPA1gnlHL7txW-Llw/s200/libdem.JPG" width="200" /></a></div>
But there seems to be something inherently unfair - even undemocratic - when a small minority can elect a majority. The recent by-elections in November inspired some discussion about how we vote, progressives vs. conservatives, and party mergers. The Calgary Centre race in particular was a great sounding board for all sorts of ideas. The Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt won with 37% of the vote, the first time in five elections where there was not a clear majority winner there. Andrew Coyne proposed a <a href="http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/11/30/andrew-coyne-one-time-only-electoral-pact-could-cure-our-voting-system-problems/" target="_blank">one-election non-competition pact</a> for progressive candidates. Liberal MLA Kent Hehr <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Liberal+calls+merger+left+defeat+Tories/7675634/story.html" target="_blank">wrote</a> that the other 63% of people voting for the Liberals, NDP and Greens actually agree on 95% of policy issues, and wouldn't it make sense to join forces. It would, and Hehr deserves some credit for actually saying so in public. But in politics agreeing on 95% means arguing vehemently over the other 5%, which makes any merger option subject to petty bickering and thus a longshot. [<i>Edit: that's hilarious - literally as I was writing this, I was sent a <a href="http://daveberta.ca/2012/12/todd-van-vliet-kent-hehr/" target="_blank">press release</a> from the Liberalberta Party president saying they will not be merging with the NDP and throwing Hehr under the bus. I guess that proves the point. Let's add "infighting" right after petty bickering in the previous sentence.</i>] Of course, the real problem with merging political parties is it reduces the diversity of voices and ideas available with a multitude of platforms; the U.S. two-party state is the logical end point of the merger discussion.<br />
<br />
In the Calgary Centre by-election a group called <a href="http://www.1calgarycentre.com/" target="_blank">1 Calgary Centre</a> appeared with what sounded like a realistic goal: unite the progressive vote. As the results show, if progressives had settled on a single candidate, he would have won. Unfortunately, this 1 Calgary Centre never really got much momentum (even though there was a lot of talk of strategic voting prior to the election), and worse, they never made a clear recommendation for voters; instead, by trying to be polite and politically correct, visitors to their website had no clue which of the three progressive candidates might be a consensus choice. Many people see strategic voting as a cop out, or that it is somehow distasteful since you are voting against a person or party instead of for someone. I disagree, but there never seems to be more than a small minority of voters willing to switch their vote to a different party just to defeat another party. And it's always nice to be able to vote your conscience.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcZcHpQg0TIhEYJXF_sdOd9b9pCKyrr9TYzMaNo2ldoCoqu8_JjhxVUUoEKEzXjLtiTnkT2ehsPSjrtS4vtJz6nJE0EzV50FcLxm0ADb0KbR4G83PiQV0c0qDCs1_L_RkZsopkxMAqYNq1/s1600/7606668.bin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcZcHpQg0TIhEYJXF_sdOd9b9pCKyrr9TYzMaNo2ldoCoqu8_JjhxVUUoEKEzXjLtiTnkT2ehsPSjrtS4vtJz6nJE0EzV50FcLxm0ADb0KbR4G83PiQV0c0qDCs1_L_RkZsopkxMAqYNq1/s400/7606668.bin.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Preferential voting could be the alternative. Also known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting" target="_blank">instant runoff voting</a>, this is where instead of a single mark on the ballot, you indicate your first, second and third (or more) choices depending on the system and how many candidates are running. The Alberta PCs use a preferential ballot to choose their leader, and this system was the reason Ed Stelmach became premier - he was everybody's second choice. Let's walk through the mechanics of how a simple preferential ballot could work, using the Calgary Centre returns as an example:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 394px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5888; mso-width-source: userset; width: 121pt;" width="161"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3840; mso-width-source: userset; width: 79pt;" width="105"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt; width: 121pt;" width="161"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Party</span></span></b></td>
<td style="width: 79pt;" width="105"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Candidate</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Votes</b></span></span></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Percent</b></span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Conservative</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Joan Crockatt</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">10201</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">37.2%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Liberal</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Harvey Locke</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">9034</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">33.0%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Green Party</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Chris Turner</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">7090</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">25.9%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">NDP</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Dan Meades</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1063</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">3.9%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Total</b></span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>27388</b></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl68"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>100.0%</b></span></span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Just to keep things simple I will ignore the other two candidates whose combined 262 votes were less than one percent of the total. In the current system, Joan Crockatt had more votes than any other candidate, so she wins - end of story. But let's say every voter was allowed to mark a first, second and third choice. A first choice would be required for a valid ballot, but a second and third would be optional. If there were only two candidates you would be willing to support, just mark a 1 and a 2. Or just choose one and only one candidate if that's how you feel.<br />
<br />
The last place finisher, Dan Meades, drops off the list and all votes for the NDP are redistributed. This is my guess of how NDP voters might have selected a second choice, after voting first and foremost for their own candidate:<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</span></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 394px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5888; mso-width-source: userset; width: 121pt;" width="161"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3840; mso-width-source: userset; width: 79pt;" width="105"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt; text-align: left; width: 121pt;" width="161"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Second Choice</span></span></b></td><td class="xl65" style="width: 79pt;" width="105"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Votes</span></span></b></td><td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Percent</span></span></b></td></tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Conservative</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice NDP</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">53</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">5%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Liberal</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice </span></span>NDP</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">213</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">20%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Green Party</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice </span></span>NDP</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">425</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">40%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">No Second Choice</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice </span></span>NDP</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">372</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">35%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1063</span></span></b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl68"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">100%</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
We take Mr. Meades' 1063 votes and add 691 to the respective second choice parties. The other 372 didn't mark any other preference, so these votes are discarded. After adding the second choice to the primary numbers, we get this:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 394px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5888; mso-width-source: userset; width: 121pt;" width="161"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3840; mso-width-source: userset; width: 79pt;" width="105"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt; width: 121pt;" width="161"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Party</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 79pt;" width="105"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Candidate</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Votes</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Percent</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Conservative</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Joan Crockatt</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">10254</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">38.0%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Liberal</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Harvey Locke</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">9247</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">34.2%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Green Party</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Chris Turner</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">7515</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">27.8%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Subtotal</span></span></b></td>
<td><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">27016</span></span></b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl68"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">100.0%</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Uncounted</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">372</span></span></td>
<td class="xl67"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Total</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl65"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">27388</span></span></b></td>
<td><b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></b></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
As there is still no candidate with over 50% of the votes, we repeat the process of eliminating last place; this time Chris Turner drops off. Again, my guess as to how Green voters might feel about a second choice, although in reality Green Party supporters are fairly unpredictable. Also, 425 of these are originally from the NDP, so those ballots would now look at their third choice:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 394px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5888; mso-width-source: userset; width: 121pt;" width="161"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3840; mso-width-source: userset; width: 79pt;" width="105"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt; width: 121pt;" width="161"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Second Choice</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 79pt;" width="105"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Votes</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Percent</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Conservative</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice </span></span>Gree<span style="font-size: x-small;">n</span> </span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1<span style="font-size: x-small;">127</span></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">15%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Liberal</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice </span></span>Gree<span style="font-size: x-small;">n</span> </span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">3006</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">40%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NDP</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice </span></span>Green</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">2631</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">35%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">No Second Choice</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1st <span style="font-size: x-small;">c</span>hoice </span></span>Green</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">7<span style="font-size: x-small;">51</span></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">10%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">7515</span></span></b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl68"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">100%</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The Conservative and Liberal votes are fine, but since there is no longer an NDP candidate on the ballot at this stage, those 2631 ballots need to go to the third choice:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 394px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5888; mso-width-source: userset; width: 121pt;" width="161"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3840; mso-width-source: userset; width: 79pt;" width="105"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt; width: 121pt;" width="161"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Third Choice</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 79pt;" width="105"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Votes</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Percent</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Conservative</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>Gree<span style="font-size: x-small;">n, 2<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>NDP</span> </span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">6<span style="font-size: x-small;">57</span></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">25%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Liberal</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>Gree<span style="font-size: x-small;">n, 2<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>NDP</span> </span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1<span style="font-size: x-small;">579</span></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">60%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">No Third Choice</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>Gree<span style="font-size: x-small;">n, 2<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>NDP</span> </span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">3<span style="font-size: x-small;">95</span></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">15%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">2<span style="font-size: x-small;">631</span></span></span></b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl68"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">10<span style="font-size: x-small;">0</span>%</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So the PCs pick up 1784 votes from Green voters' second and third choices, while the Liberalbertans add another 4585. 1146 votes are thrown out here. The final tally:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 394px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5888; mso-width-source: userset; width: 121pt;" width="161"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3840; mso-width-source: userset; width: 79pt;" width="105"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt; width: 121pt;" width="161"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Party</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 79pt;" width="105"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Candidate</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Votes</span></span></b></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Percent</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Conservative</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Joan Crockatt</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">12038</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">46.5%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Liberal</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Harvey Locke</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">13832</span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">53.5%</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Total Counted</b></span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">25870</span></span></b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl68"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">100.0%</span></span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Uncounted</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1518</span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>All Votes</b></span></span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">27388</span></span></b></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
We have a winner. A preferential system here would have changed the outcome, given these 2nd and 3rd choice assumptions. Note that the overall progressive vote count was 17187 or 62.8% of the total, but a full runoff with reasonable assumptions leaves the final progressive candidate with 53.5% of counted votes. This preferential result is probably more accurate of the overall voter intentions of Calgary Centre than the first-past-the-post result. What I like is that most of the votes for the third and fourth place
parties do not have to be wasted. If you are a card-carrying party member, you
might only be willing to vote for your candidate and never pick a second or third choice. But most of us would
have little problem prioritizing two or three candidates.<br />
<br />
Doing a quick spreadsheet calculation based on the last federal election: if you could combine all the Liberal, NDP and Green votes together, this merged fictional entity would have 54% of the overall vote, and won 53 more ridings than the individual parties did. But doing the same thing for the 2012 Alberta election would have barely moved the needle, with only 4 seats switching from conservative to progressive. Without crunching the numbers, a preferential ballot would likely have not allowed Chretien three successive majorities as a result of the Conservative-Reform split. However, voters can vote differently depending on how their vote gets
counted. A real preferential system has a lot of nuance, and would be a
good challenge for the Nate Silvers of the world.<br />
<br />
I believe a preferential model would be more democratic, not because it may or may not change the outcome of any one race, but because it allows but does not require a greater level of engagement and participation. Only slightly more complicated than marking a single X on a piece of paper, it is simple and straightforward enough to work. It's also not too difficult to tabulate the results. I wonder if it would even increase turnout, especially in traditional strongholds which likely are home to greater numbers of discouraged voters who have simply stopped bothering. Calgary Centre was accurately
forecast to be a close election, and still over 70% of eligible voters stayed
home.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBVxvAtzs29FjVimdUUMWZBWwLmGtTfZ2OqqYpGpewdl_Iidp19Ftz5flFdkCPpsoSRNVs4rIMj3A0DfU5b0wJZGG5KEfPfdG_4zUlrnE6c4e8RHJZiupVWTvmLlTASt37aODA8Umuy82L/s1600/vote_counts_400_clr-300x300.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBVxvAtzs29FjVimdUUMWZBWwLmGtTfZ2OqqYpGpewdl_Iidp19Ftz5flFdkCPpsoSRNVs4rIMj3A0DfU5b0wJZGG5KEfPfdG_4zUlrnE6c4e8RHJZiupVWTvmLlTASt37aODA8Umuy82L/s200/vote_counts_400_clr-300x300.png" width="200" /></a></div>
In Calgary Centre it's fair to say that most people who did come out to vote were not conservatives. The question is do people see one right-of-centre party and three somewhat similar left parties, or are there in fact four very different choices with little overlap? We probably won't know for sure until we try it, and electoral reform is hard because the status quo system is how the current government won in the first place. But things can and do change occasionally, and this is one issue that deserves some serious consideration. It's not about changing outcomes necessarily, but rather making every vote count.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-42915480189983664292012-11-20T10:24:00.000-07:002013-11-22T10:22:28.352-07:00Weighted Stanley Cup Standings<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgskTiHRXvYFoW-_JdsU6i0yWvRIStp8-EJDIS4SQgTvAGeqhRXcggPfuRHjECg4a1_NJcfqubc5fPtUmLIa6dfno_uc4FjhCiMfKod15Z_1yFdc41ZpRZ8xA6m5uJimV8Z8ZUKU1SXBKB6/s1600/Lordstanley.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgskTiHRXvYFoW-_JdsU6i0yWvRIStp8-EJDIS4SQgTvAGeqhRXcggPfuRHjECg4a1_NJcfqubc5fPtUmLIa6dfno_uc4FjhCiMfKod15Z_1yFdc41ZpRZ8xA6m5uJimV8Z8ZUKU1SXBKB6/s200/Lordstanley.jpg" width="111" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Lord Stanley of Preston</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Well, as the NHL lockout drags on, we fans are starting to get a little squirrelly and need to find something hockey-related to fill our day. We're now streaming games from Russia and Sweden at 9am just to follow a prospect. I'd never even heard of the Subway Super Series before, but found myself watching a few periods last week. [Note to the NHL and NHLPA: our passion for hockey does not mean you can take our money for granted. We're pissed off at both of you, so don't be surprised if we don't buy as many tickets or jerseys if and when you ever decide to start playing again.]<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQsZS9wOfCRASEcF7tPKbxJMZEVloddHG83LTVqJRd_LUG29alGKHi9Vthc3wi4zNx9DuGCwnztcfRRvs4UzLMBHbJuNjgogcJjfRbASgP-10UwqbFE_pRrtiLVh8CGr96oSwa_BS5ZdMg/s1600/220px-Albert_Grey.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQsZS9wOfCRASEcF7tPKbxJMZEVloddHG83LTVqJRd_LUG29alGKHi9Vthc3wi4zNx9DuGCwnztcfRRvs4UzLMBHbJuNjgogcJjfRbASgP-10UwqbFE_pRrtiLVh8CGr96oSwa_BS5ZdMg/s200/220px-Albert_Grey.jpg" width="157" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Albert Grey, 4th Earl Grey</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
One comment I heard during the ongoing CFL playoffs was about how a Grey Cup was less impressive than a Stanley Cup since there are only eight teams in the league. That is true enough today, but for a long time there were only six teams in the NHL, so for much of the '40s, '50s and '60s a Grey Cup was statistically harder to win. We tend to look at the number of cups won, but not the relative context of how many teams were in the league at the time.<br />
<br />
Here's a breakdown of Stanley Cups weighted by the number of teams the champion had to be better than to win it. For example, the Leafs' last cup in 1967 is weighted at 5 as this is the number of teams they had to beat to become champions. Last year the Kings had to be better than 29 other teams to win their cup. Obviously it is harder to win in 2012 than it was in 1967. Whether a Stanley Cup worth now is worth five or six times what it did 45 years ago is open to debate, but that's how these numbers are calculated. The data begins with the 1927 season, as this was the first year where the Stanley Cup could only be won by a team from the NHL.<br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">
</span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 384px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 97pt;" width="129"></col></colgroup><colgroup><col style="width: 101pt;" width="134"></col></colgroup><colgroup><col style="width: 91pt;" width="121"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt; width: 97pt;" width="129"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 384px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4717; mso-width-source: userset; width: 97pt;" width="129"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 4425; mso-width-source: userset; width: 91pt;" width="121"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 4900; mso-width-source: userset; width: 101pt;" width="134"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl66" height="16" style="height: 12pt; width: 97pt;" width="129"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u><b>Team</b></u></span></span></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 91pt;" width="121"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u><b>Stanley Cups</b></u></span></span></td>
<td class="xl66" style="text-align: right; width: 101pt;" width="134"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><u><b>Weighted Cups</b></u></span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Montreal Canadiens</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">22</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">228</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Detroit Red Wings</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">11</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">147</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Edmonton Oilers</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">5</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">100</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">New Jersey Devils</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">3</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">81</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">New York Islanders</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">80</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Boston Bruins</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">6</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">74</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Pittsburgh Penguins</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">3</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">70</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Toronto Maple Leafs</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">11</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">58</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Colorado Avalanche</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">2</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">54</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Chicago Black Hawks</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">49</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">New York Rangers</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">48</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Philadelphia Flyers</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">2</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">32</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Anaheim Ducks</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">29</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Carolina Hurricanes</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">29</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Los Angeles Kings</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">29</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Tampa Bay Lightning</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">29</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Dallas Stars</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">26</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Calgary Flames</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">20</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Ottawa Senators</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">9</span></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="16" style="height: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Montreal Maroons</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1</span></span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">8</span></span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Using the weighted totals, modern dynasties from Edmonton, New Jersey and Long Island rank better because of more competition in the league. The Maple Leafs on the other hand have more cups, but all were won against thin competition (almost entirely from the six-team NHL era). In this context Toronto's 15 Grey Cups are more impressive than 11 Stanleys. Detroit won seven cups prior to expansion, but four since, so overall the Red Wings do very well. And to no one's surprise, the Canadiens are in a class by themselves, winning over one quarter of the 85 Stanley Cups since 1927. The Habs have won often and consistently in original and modern times.<br />
<br />
Of course, once the Oilers string together another five or six cups, there will be a new leader in the weighted standings.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglUWW2TVcWsJp4jC6se8eF60qUCGEG4UzBKYH9IdytKcOZhR5YO6vIK1WMBEhQVmhdov2XDA-_YvHt2EiVlUdKqq5CqF52W-4i2DrexzU8KAia5W8o5xEwtFhqILRQPZVYdAOH8GWqmIrq/s1600/Engrave4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglUWW2TVcWsJp4jC6se8eF60qUCGEG4UzBKYH9IdytKcOZhR5YO6vIK1WMBEhQVmhdov2XDA-_YvHt2EiVlUdKqq5CqF52W-4i2DrexzU8KAia5W8o5xEwtFhqILRQPZVYdAOH8GWqmIrq/s1600/Engrave4.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-60931028542100659162012-10-17T10:41:00.000-06:002012-10-22T14:43:20.297-06:00Stop DiggingDespite a growing population in Edmonton, dozens of public schools were closed during the past decade, usually over the vehement objections of students, parents and community members. In October 2010 this became an election issue, and for the first time average voters were interested in trustee candidates. Several incumbent trustees who consistently voted to close schools did not run again, and several new candidates who campaigned at least in part against indiscriminate school closure were elected. The one candidate whose sole platform was no school closure, Sarah Hoffman, received more votes than any city councillor in 2010 and more votes than any school trustee, ever. The following month her motion was <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/board/dec14_10/item01.pdf" target="_blank">approved</a> by the board of trustees:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
That the Board impose a renewable two year moratorium on school closures, and that during this time the board seek to further understand the issues and impacts surrounding school closures. During the moratorium, the board will also identify a number of ways to support schools instead of close them.</blockquote>
Last week the <i>Edmonton Journal</i> published an editorial more or less advocating for more school closures and urban sprawl. You can view the original, uninterrupted version <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/editorials/Editorial+Public+board+trustees+must+remove+their/7377413/story.html" target="_blank">here</a>, but it's copied verbatim below in blue text, with just a few of my comments interspersed:<br />
<div id="1">
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>Public board trustees must remove their blinders on school closures</b></span></span> </div>
<div id="1">
<br />
I can't even get past the title. The school closure
moratorium was approved in order to "further understand the issues and
impacts surrounding school closures." This is the exact opposite of
putting on blinders.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Two years ago, trustees of Edmonton’s public-school
system seemed to forget that schools exist for children, and not the
other way around.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">They also seemed to forget that they are
responsible for education, not urban planning; that children should not
be shortchanged by the legitimate housing choices of their parents; and
that postponing a tough decision rarely makes it more popular or less
painful when the day of reckoning comes. </span></span></div>
<div id="1">
<br />
The board of trustees' role is to oversee the school district's superintendent and administration, to ensure its mission and values are upheld, and to provide some vision for the future. The law regarding how all this is managed is in the <i><a href="http://education.alberta.ca/department/policy/legislation/regulations.aspx">School Act</a></i>. The law obviously includes education but also regulations on the bricks and mortar of school buildings. This is probably why it's not called the <i>Education Act</i>. Education is the largest and most important part of what a school board does, but not its only responsibility.<br />
<br />
Why should trustees' activities be so narrowly defined, anyway? The <i>Journal </i>seems to want school boards strictly limited to making sure students do well on their provincial achievement tests. What about the no junk food policy adopted in 2007? In promoting healthy choices in school vending machines and cafeterias, did trustees overstep their authority? How about in 2011 when they voted in a policy to provide a welcoming environment for gay and lesbian students and employees, and protect them from discrimination? (As a matter of record the only trustee to oppose this <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/board/march22_11/item01.pdf" target="_blank">motion</a> was Catherine Ripley, who also voted against the school closure moratorium.) This board of trustees has chosen to set the bar a little higher for themselves. In fact, the <a href="http://www.epsb.ca/about/mission.shtml" target="_blank">mission</a> of the public school board reaches well beyond education by looking at the whole child and includes families and communities as partners. If the school board thinks it is relevant to look at growth patterns or demographics in how they close schools, they should be applauded for considering the bigger picture. Schools do not exist in a civic vacuum.<br />
<br />
The use of the phrase "tough decision" also appeared in a <i>Journal </i>editorial in April 2010 (no longer online) following the last barrage of school closings. The inference is that these painful choices are necessary, and anyone who disagrees with the decision to close a school must be afraid to do the right thing. It's tough because there is strong and passionate opposition, due to the fact that the reasoning, methodology and public consultation surrounding school closures is profoundly flawed. If the process actually functioned properly, then citizens would partner with school officials to create solutions that did not always have the word "closure" in them. Then we would not have nearly as many of these alleged tough calls to make. Imagine going to a doctor whose response to every type of malady is to make the tough decision to amputate your right arm. A premature, uninformed, wrong and/or unnecessarily painful decision is not the same thing as a courageous one.<br />
<br />
"Legitimate housing choices" in this context refers to families moving to the suburbs; I don't think we're talking about the legitimate choice to live in an inner-city neighbourhood here. The editorial assumes an inevitability to current growth patterns. But in fact many older neighbourhoods are currently in various stages of revitalization, as more and more people are choosing to live in these mature areas. When any city grows to a size where commuting time becomes an important factor in where you choose to live, central communities become desirable alternatives to suburbs and exurbs. Most grown-up cities enable families to live right in the core by zoning appropriately, providing a little green space and, of course, a school. Suburban living will likely always be an option for Edmonton, but the alternatives need to be available as well. Urban sprawl is neither inevitable nor unstoppable: it is a function of the attitudes and politics of the day.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">At the end of November, a
bit more than 10 months before they must face re-election, Edmonton
Public Schools’ elected representatives will face these hard truths when
their ill-advised moratorium on school closures comes to an end. </span></span></div>
<div id="1">
<br />
When there is a good possibility that the current process is causing real harm, it makes a lot of sense to stop doing it in order to prevent further damage. It reminds me of the Will Rogers quote: "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging." It is theoretically possible that by not rushing ahead to close more schools during this temporary pause for analysis and discussion, we are somehow making things worse. After two years there is no evidence that is remotely true. This moratorium was not ill-advised, it was overdue.<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Their frustration with a trend toward urban sprawl was and remains understandable. They are caught between a provincial government that controls the purse
strings but doesn’t want the blame for classroom shortages, a city hall
that doesn’t want potential property taxes to end up in the new suburbs
allowed by outlying municipalities, and parents whose dream of a
single-family home in a neighbourhood full of other child-rearing
families can only be achieved on the city’s periphery. </span></span><br />
<br />
The first part of this paragraph is actually an excellent summary of the dysfunction between the three levels of government. The point about the tax base crossing city limits is very valid and deserves more attention. When the Detroit school system was closing literally hundreds of schools a few years ago, their strategy was to "defend the borders," meaning they were trying to contain the exodus from of the city by supporting schools near Detroit's city limits. The inner city schools were the casualties, as they always seem to be.<br />
<br />
The last part about families is complete garbage. The <i>Journal </i>may think families can and will only ever live in the suburbs. This Halloween they should walk around some of the non-peripheral communities they have already written off and see first-hand just how many children live there. More than they think, and more than there used to be. Many families believe walking to school and biking to the park are better options than the chauffeured-minivan lifestyle.</div>
<div id="1">
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Certainly
the frustration of parents who choose to live in mature neighbourhoods
near schools with low enrolments is something any fair-minded taxpayer
should sympathize with. Through no fault of their own, they live with
insecurity for their children and for their beloved deep-rooted
communities — communities that have more character and sense of identity
on a single street corner than new subdivisions have in all their
terraces, trails and wynds combined. </span></span></div>
<div id="1">
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Furthermore, schools with
small enrolments are often located in poorer neighbourhoods where
parents don’t have the resources to do the drive to school so common in
suburbs. And such schools often play vital after-hours roles as well for
both adults and youth. </span></span></div>
<div id="1">
<br />
Absolutely: closing McCauley, Eastwood, Parkdale and Spruce Avenue (elementary program only) schools in 2010 affected central neighbourhoods that have significantly lower average household incomes. These are the communities that are most in need. The children in these areas now have a much harder and steeper path to the same education and other school supports that suburban children have been granted.</div>
<div id="1">
<br /></div>
<div id="1">
At least the role of the school is rightly recognized here as more than just a place for education, and benefits more than just children. Especially so in neighbourhoods with higher immigrant family populations. The school is the heart of the community.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">But none of this changes the fact that
small schools often lack the enriching optional programs that schools
with larger enrolments can afford. Further, none of this justifies
putting budgetary priority on modernizing old facilities in areas with
multiple schools when the only thing requiring maintenance on a lot of
suburban school real estate is grass.</span></span><br />
<br />
Now we've gone completely off the rails. The argument that larger schools produce better outcomes is false and there is a <b>mountain of research on the academic benefits of small schools</b>. In additional to many other social, environmental and health benefits, small schools generally provide students as good an education as large schools if not better. The number of options has little to do with a successful outcome. Anecdotally, most families at Ritchie junior high (closed in 2008) were happy with the education provided there even though the school had much fewer optional programs. <br />
<br />
The idea that maintaining schools is somehow more expensive than building new ones is baffling. It is outright dishonest to suggest that the cost difference is on the scale of a major building renovation compared to mowing a lawn; it's not cheaper when you include the cost of building the new school. But the money for new schools is budgeted completely separately from maintenance funding, and this arbitrary political configuration can prejudice how we think. Ultimately the money all comes from the same place: taxpayers. We allow provincial politicians be the sole authority to locate and build new schools, and it makes no sense. Political dynasties like the Alberta PCs are likely to favour their voting base - wealthy suburbanites - while ignoring the more left-leaning voters who live in the more urban areas. If you think this is cynical, have a look at the timing of when new schools are announced; it strongly correlates with the period leading up to an election.<br />
<br />
As I understand it, maintenance funding happens in two ways. The first is the day-to-day maintenance such as replacing light bulbs or a new coat of paint, plus smaller repairs; this money is under the control of the school board. But if the maintenance becomes big enough, like a new heating system, it's now considered "Plant Operation and Maintenance" which is doled out by the province once again, but from a different pot of money that has nothing to do with the new school funds. School boards must submit a prioritized list of PO&M projects each year, then the Alberta government decides which, if any, it will pay for. Some modernizations linger on this list forever. School boards must come to their provincial masters begging for money every year. The whole business is a governmental shell game where those at the top of the pecking order serve their own interests first. This must be more wasteful and costly than a system that manages school openings and closings, major repairs and modernizations, and day to day operations as a coordinated, holistic system.</div>
<div id="1">
<br />
The biggest myth is that we cannot afford low-enrolment schools. Once again, we have impressive academic research that says small schools in fact do not cost more than big ones. If you dare to look long-term - at high school completion rates, future incomes and tax revenues of students from small and large schools - as some studies have, then on average small schools cost less overall. This is important: on a per-graduate basis, <b>small schools are more cost-effective than large schools</b>.<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;"> </span></span></div>
<div id="1">
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">One of the perennial
problems with the school-closure debate — a tense argument to be found
in one form or another in growing cities across Canada — is that people
tend to see a linkage between school closures and the need to build new
schools closer to where most of today’s young families live.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">In
the 1990s, finance ministers in Alberta aggravated this picture of
competing needs when they insisted that school boards improve the
occupancy rate of their classroom inventory before receiving cash for
new construction. </span></span></div>
<div id="1">
<br />
It is true that there is no direct link between schools closing and opening.
They are budgeted for independently, and decided upon by different
elected officials at different levels. However, there is some causality,
in that opening new schools adds to the total capacity of a school
district. In Alberta, the utilization rate (number of students divided
by the total capacity of the school, roughly) is a key statistic used for allocating funds. School boards are always trying to increase their utilization rate. Adding new schools makes the overall utilization rate drop. None of this even touches on the distortions of how school capacity is calculated.<br />
<br />
As Edmonton sprawls, there are many new neighbourhoods that did not exist a few years ago. These neighbourhoods are indeed full of young families. If there is no school in a new development when families move in, are residents justified in demanding a school be built? On the other hand, when families choose a mature, walkable neighbourhood because a school already exists nearby, is it fair to them to close the school and force these children to be transported outside their communities? Do suburban homeowners rights trump those of urban residents?</div>
<div id="1">
<br />
The perception that schools are a zero-sum game persists, and nobody
seems to be going out of their way to define it otherwise. It is the
politics of distraction: aligning urban vs. suburban, poor vs. rich,
left vs. right. If we are busy sniping at each other about which part of
town deserves a school, then we're not paying much attention to the big picture of the entire dubious process and its false assumptions, the research that suggests we're heading in the wrong direction, or the impacts the city as a whole.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Instead, the focus ought to be on making sure
all children get the quality of education that is possible only in
schools where high enrolment brings lots of per-student funding that can
be spent on improved programming in core and optional subjects. </span></span></div>
<div id="1">
<br />
Again: the premise that quality education is only possible in large schools is false. The assumption that bigger is better is simply not true when it comes to schools. Any school, large or small, can deliver a good education to all of its students with enough commitment and leadership. We need to get past the myth that large schools always produce better educational outcomes. They don't. <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Fortunately,
Edmonton Public Schools trustees now seem to recognize this in their
new list of factors to be considered when determining a school’s fate,
such as the issue of limited programming and availability of space in
nearby schools.</span></span></div>
<div id="2">
<br />
These new factors have always been part of the equation. I could go on for pages about the problems with the existing school closure process as practiced by EPSB (and I just may do that if the <i>Journal </i>comes out with another editorial like this one). To simplify: the school board administration identifies which schools have low utilization rates as potential closure candidates, and includes factors such as the physical condition of the building, enrolment within neighbourhood and catchment areas, available space in nearby schools, demographic projections, transportation alternatives, and whatever else they feel will build a case against the school.<br />
<br />
The problem is that most of these criteria are faulty from the start, or else have little logical connection with a sound rationale to close a school. It seems it is only the utilization rate that matters anyway. If you look back through the admin reports recommending closure through
the years, it is very much a boilerplate document with little
differentiation of each school's unique qualities and circumstances. Hopefully during this moratorium Edmonton Public will take a fresh look at <i>why</i> they would consider closing a school, and come up with a more rigorous process with meaningful criteria.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">The board also seems to have
realized it would be better to focus energies on lobbying city and
provincial authorities for more school-friendly policies, rather than on
applying unilateral pressure with tactics such as moratoria. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">Clearly,
the city understands the problem and the importance of schools for more
than education in the life of a community. For example, in its report
Elevate, the mayor’s task force on community sustainability realized the
value of attracting young families to older neighbourhoods. </span></span><br />
<br />
I agree completely: schools are more than curriculum-delivery buildings, and they have a crucial role to play in reinvesting in our existing mature communities. So why is the rest of this editorial critical of EPSB trustees for "urban planning", and for temporarily calling a halt to what may very well be irreversible damage? A timeout here is needed and entirely rational, and should not be characterized as a pressure tactic.<br />
<br />
Certainly having the decision-making of school siting and operations arbitrarily divided between three separate governments is a complicated mess we have inherited. Credit goes to EPSB trustees such as Dave Colburn for initiating dialogue between these three levels, and to Mayor Mandel for acknowledging the role of schools in Edmonton's development (and redevelopment). Alberta MLAs show up for some of these discussions, but have yet to show any meaningful collaboration.<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;"> </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="color: blue;">If
the moratorium did no more than offer false hope to parents that
changing demographics and the trend to closures could be halted, perhaps
it did contribute a little to changing attitudes at city hall.
</span></span></div>
<br />
Wow - what a fatalistic thing to say. Maybe we should just get it over with and bulldoze all residential neighbourhoods and schools between the Whitemud and Yellowhead highways since suburban sprawl is inevitable. Demographics patterns are changing a little, but not in the backwards-looking way the <i>Journal </i>meant; some families are choosing to live in mature, revitalized, walkable, sustainable communities. And what is commonplace in other cities is shockingly novel for Edmonton: living without a car. Going carless works in older, more compact neighbourhoods, but good luck in one of our new communities. Even if a suburb has a school, chances are because of low density it will be too far to walk to and students will arrive by car or bus anyway. Not only do we have urban sprawl, we have poorly-planned, expensive sprawl.<br />
<br />
Attitudes <i>are</i> slowly changing at city hall and at the public school board. The editorial board at the <i>Journal</i>, by repackaging yesterday's values and assumptions as the tunnel-vision of our future, is shovelling more of the same thing that got us here, deeper and deeper. Fortunately, increasing numbers of Edmontonians have already taken their own blinders off and are starting to look around at more effective and more sustainable alternatives.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
References and Further Reading</h3>
<i>Remember that "mountain of research"? Here is the tip of the iceberg: a collection of academic papers, websites and news articles on the main themes discussed above.</i><br />
<br />
<h4>
School Closure</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.lispop.ca/blog/2012/08/22/a-school-of-ones-own/#more-259" target="_blank">A School of One’s Own</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bctf.ca/IssuesInEducation.aspx?id=10404" target="_blank">BC Teachers' Federation: Impact of School Closures</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bctf.ca/IssuesInEducation.aspx?id=10398" target="_blank">BC Teachers' Federation: School Closure Background Information</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bctf.ca/SchoolClosures.aspx" target="_blank">BC Teachers' Federation: School Closures</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.realrenewal.org/dbdocs//4f5cb1ef8b47a.pdf" target="_blank">Double Jeopardy for Poorer Schools In TDSB School Closing Process</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://thetyee.ca/Views/2007/10/01/MorePols/" target="_blank">Fewer Schools, More Politicians</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.tdsb.on.ca/wwwdocuments/parents/parent_groups/docs/TD%20Full%20Service%20Schools-Sept%2017_final.pdf" target="_blank">Full Service Schools: The Future of the T.D.S.B.</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://educationactiontoronto.com/home/hubs-not-hulks" target="_blank">Hubs not Hulks</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.socialplanningtoronto.org/news/proceedings-impacts-of-school-closures-on-children-and-communities/" target="_blank">Proceedings – Impacts of School Closures on Children and Communities</a></li>
<li><a href="http://realrenewal.org/dbdocs//4e8763051d402.pdf" target="_blank">Real Renewal: Response to the Biennial Review</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.peopleforeducation.ca/pfe-news/school-closings-on-the-increase-review-of-process-needed/" target="_blank">School closings on the increase – review of process needed</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/719187--school-closures-ripples-felt-far-beyond-the-classroom" target="_blank">SCHOOL CLOSURES: Ripples felt far beyond the classroom</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/720838--school-closures-spectre-of-education-desert-in-lower-city" target="_blank">SCHOOL CLOSURES: Spectre of ‘education desert’ in lower city</a></li>
<li><a href="http://ineducation.ca/article/school-consolidation-and-notions-progress-why-community-actors-almost-always-lose-fight-keep" target="_blank">School Consolidation and Notions of Progress: Why Community Actors Almost Always Lose the Fight to Keep Local Schools and How They Can Turn the Tables</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/717847--school-s-out-forever" target="_blank">School’s out … forever?</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.thewhig.com/2012/07/10/study-suggests-communities-have-no-real-say-in-school-closures" target="_blank">Study suggests communities have no real say in school closures</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1353829201000235" target="_blank">The impacts of a school closure on neighbourhood social cohesion: narratives from Invercargill, New Zealand</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.realrenewal.org/dbdocs//49b2f3256d277.pdf" target="_blank">Time For Second Thought: Comments On The Renewal Plan</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.policyalternatives.ca/%7EASSETS/DOCUMENT/Saskatchewan_Pubs/2009/School_Closures_in_Regina.pdf" target="_blank">Will the New Property Tax System Save Our Neighbourhood Schools?</a> (PDF)</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<h4>
Small Schools</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://deborahmeier.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/meier_2006_asthoughthey.pdf" target="_blank">‘As Though They Owned the Place’: Small Schools As Membership Communities</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://thetyee.ca/News/2007/09/07/BogBoxSchools/" target="_blank">BC's Move to 'Big Box' Schools</a></li>
<li><a href="http://deborahmeier.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/1997_oddschanged.pdf" target="_blank">Can the Odds Be Changed?</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/inside-school-research/2010/06/chicago_study_a_slightly_diffe.html" target="_blank">Chicago Study: A Slightly Different Take on Small Schools</a></li>
<li><a href="http://stmaryschool.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/does_school_size_matter_fin.doc" target="_blank">Does School Size Matter?</a> (DOC)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.blogger.com/www.earlycolleges.org/Downloads/reslib79.pdf" target="_blank">Dollars & Sense: The Cost Effectiveness of Small Schools</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.archachieve.net/smallschools/Resources/dollars_sense2.pdf" target="_blank">Dollars & Sense II: Lessons from Good, Cost Effectiveness Small Schools</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.mdrc.org/project_29_96.html" target="_blank">New York City Small Schools of Choice Evaluation</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.nea.org/home/13639.htm" target="_blank">Research Talking Points on Small Schools</a></li>
<li><a href="http://educationnorthwest.org/webfm_send/513" target="_blank">School Size, School Climate, and Student Performance</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.ascd.org/publications/educational-leadership/feb02/vol59/num05/Small-Classes,-Small-Schools@-The-Time-Is-Now.aspx" target="_blank">Small Classes, Small Schools: The Time Is Now</a></li>
<li><a href="http://smallschoolsworkshop.wordpress.com/small-schools/" target="_blank">Small Schools</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.amle.org/AboutAMLE/PositionStatements/SmallSchools/tabid/293/Default.aspx" target="_blank">Small Schools and Small Learning Communities</a></li>
<li><a href="http://educationnext.org/small-schools-work-after-all-a-good-study-shows/" target="_blank">Small Schools Work After All, A Good Study Shows</a></li>
<li><a href="http://thetyee.ca/Views/2008/09/09/SmallSchools/" target="_blank">Small Schools, Next Big Thing</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/detailmini.jsp?_nfpb=true&_&ERICExtSearch_SearchValue_0=ED386517&ERICExtSearch_SearchType_0=no&accno=ED386517" target="_blank">Small Schools: The Numbers Tell a Story</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.edfacilities.org/pubs/saneschools.pdf" target="_blank">Smaller, Safer, Saner Successful Schools</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://deborahmeier.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/2004_smallness.pdf" target="_blank">Smallness,Autonomy, and Choice: Scaling Up</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.education.com/reference/article/Ref_Advantages_Small/" target="_blank">The Advantages of Small Schools</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.e3smallschools.org/ssw.html" target="_blank">The Case for Small Schools</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.archachieve.net/smallschools/Resources/Finance/cost%20per%20graduate.pdf" target="_blank">The Effects of Size of Student Body on School Costs and Performance in New York City High Schools</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.ruraledu.org/articles.php?id=2042" target="_blank">The Fiscal Impacts of School Consolidation: Research Based Conclusions</a></li>
<li><a href="http://pixel.cs.vt.edu/edu/size.html" target="_blank">The Impact of School Size</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.essentialschools.org/resources/21" target="_blank">Why Small Schools Are Essential</a></li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<h4>
Schools and City Planning</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://citiesandschools.berkeley.edu/pubs.html" target="_blank">Berkeley Center for Cities and Schools</a></li>
<li><a href="http://citiesandschools.berkeley.edu/reports/CCS2012CAK12facilities.pdf" target="_blank">California's K-12 Educational Infrastructure Investments: Leveraging the State's Role for Quality School Facilities in Sustainable Communities</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.prrac.org/pdf/HousingEducationReport-October2011.pdf" target="_blank">Framing the Connections: Integrating housing, transportation and education in cityand regional planning</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://citiesandschools.berkeley.edu/reports/cc&s-focus_policy_report_final_june2011.pdf" target="_blank">Growth & Opportunity: Aligning High-Quality Public Education & Sustainable Communities Planning in the Bay Area</a> (PDF)</li>
<li><a href="http://citiesandschools.berkeley.edu/reports/ccs_wwc_report.pdf" target="_blank">Opportunity-Rich Schools and Sustainable Communities: Seven Steps to Align High-Quality Education with Innovations in City and Metropolitan Planning and Development</a> (PDF)</li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-55676713629478610292012-09-13T16:10:00.000-06:002012-09-18T12:12:06.598-06:00Deep BreathThe great Edmonton Arena saga took another twist yesterday: with little warning, city councillors met <i>in camera</i> to discuss a request from the Katz group. The specifics were not made public, but the essence of it seems to be Katz wants the city to kick in more money. City council basically said no - we'll stick with the deal we agreed to.<br />
<br />
Katz is drifting into the realm of hated owners like George Steinbrenner and Art Modell. Because details are sketchy and communications from the Katz Group are poor, Daryl Katz went from a reclusive but supportive owner to a greedy bastard in one day. The mayor came out of the private meeting talking about frustration instead of optimism. The only thing missing was the angry mob with torches and pitchforks storming stately Katz manor.<br />
<br />
There are so many tangents and missing pieces to this whole complex story. I understand some of this is because business negotiations often are better done in private so some sensitive details may be withheld. We don't have nearly all the answers yet. Here are some of the main questions in my mind:<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-weight: normal;"><b>Is $450 million enough to build the arena?</b></span></b><br />
<br />
No, according to a release put out by Katz after yesterday's meeting. But that is for an "iconic arena that is well-integrated with surrounding neighbourhoods." On the other hand, this amount should be enough to build a decent facility, based on a couple of comparable examples. Pittsburgh's Consol Energy Center was completed a couple of years ago at a cost of $321 million, which is about $350 million in 2012 dollars. I looked up housing price information in Pittsburgh as a rough benchmark of how expensive construction costs are there compared to Edmonton. On average, real estate is about 25% cheaper in Pittsburgh than in Edmonton, so $350 million to build a building there would equate to $450 million here. I know, this is anything but scientific, but I needed some way to get a feel for the relative costs. Seattle just announced their own arena project, with a price tag of $490 million, so it would seem we're in the ballpark if you'll excuse the baseball metaphor.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPmGypgh0iPah9YWvo0nxB0_OvGCKouTToxb8pqk_zmZXAPQ4ys51l_6EL_FeF2ABy0qabNQENUDccqVhZrl3QLjQgGVpyQXxxLZi-Bw9KK-ZoaxKTYLvPQFqz6MFCjNfy22V_qkBdIRcm/s1600/arena_exterior_design_3_430x260.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPmGypgh0iPah9YWvo0nxB0_OvGCKouTToxb8pqk_zmZXAPQ4ys51l_6EL_FeF2ABy0qabNQENUDccqVhZrl3QLjQgGVpyQXxxLZi-Bw9KK-ZoaxKTYLvPQFqz6MFCjNfy22V_qkBdIRcm/s400/arena_exterior_design_3_430x260.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Edmontonians will remember a few years ago when oil prices spiked and the Alberta oil patch was booming. Great for the economy, but all of a sudden many skilled tradespeople were up in Fort McMurray making crazy money, and those who stayed put could, and did, jack up rates for any kind of construction work. If the deal is not finalized and costs locked in soon, there is a legitimate risk of construction costs going much higher if we head into another oil boom.<br />
<br />
I'm all for the iconic arena concept (although I hate the word - reminds me of the "world-class" meme that Toronto went through a while back, when it had a bad inferiority complex and was jealous of New York City.) But the idea is to build something truly great and unique, as opposed to mediocre or half-assed. This is exactly what Edmonton needs. Currently, our city is associated primarily with West Edmonton Mall, simply because it's big. There are plenty of mediocre, medium-sized malls here that nobody outside Edmonton cares about, and for good reason. We certainly don't need an expensive vanity project to make us feel better about ourselves, but once in a while we can show a little character and vision, shoot for the stars and create something fantastic. The current design is pretty amazing, but there is a real risk if costs escalate that things start getting watered down or eliminated completely. Basically, if we're going to spend a fortune on this thing, it should be done right, instead of some embarrassing compromise that makes the whole city look amateurish.<br />
<br />
Why should Katz care about any of this? From a business perspective, he wants a new arena with more seats and boxes; his ticket revenue depends on the number of seats, not whether the walls are made of stamped zinc or grey concrete. Designing more space for concessions might boost beer sales between periods (I'm guessing - I wonder if that happened when they expanded the concession areas at Commonwealth a few years ago). Since the Oilers sell out every night and should continue to do so until Taylor Hall retires, it wouldn't matter much whether the building is iconic and well-integrated or not. Katz has also purchased some land next to the proposed arena site, so he actually does have some skin in the "neighbourhood redevelopment" game. And while he is currently Satan to many Edmontonians, it is possible Katz is looking beyond the bottom line for his hockey team, and actually cares that the city executes this project properly.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi174FUSghlj1k0Ivxq7r7i1HPT80m8EkweEKcGYjlYUCHnBMUZT0qYsvznRW3cay0Lh1p0Hakwp_LVp0ZrfteZIk3RKsBOzhYqHdvmdkjVom4L6rRxwMvYibB3X_YIhmoz3MUMVp1wnEh6/s1600/winter_garden_1_430x260.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi174FUSghlj1k0Ivxq7r7i1HPT80m8EkweEKcGYjlYUCHnBMUZT0qYsvznRW3cay0Lh1p0Hakwp_LVp0ZrfteZIk3RKsBOzhYqHdvmdkjVom4L6rRxwMvYibB3X_YIhmoz3MUMVp1wnEh6/s400/winter_garden_1_430x260.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
One more angle here, from Colby Cosh at Macleans. His <a href="http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/03/15/can-you-spare-100-million/" target="_blank">article</a> from last March raises the idea that, simply, Daryl Katz may not have the deep pockets we assume he does. He points to an increasingly regulated drug market in Canada, which suggests drug store profits may be declining. And since Rexall is not a public company, we don't know for sure what it's worth; we're relying on an estimate from <i>Canadian Business</i> magazine as to how much money Mr. Katz actually has.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Will the Oilers leave Edmonton if the deal falls through?</b><br />
<br />
As I write this David Staples has put out a few tweets suggesting that yes, this is a real possibility, and cites mainly NFL teams as examples. I disagree. Early in his commissionership Gary Bettman did indeed relocate hockey teams as part of a push into the southern US. However, since about 1997 after four years on the job, he seems to have reversed his thinking and has worked to keep teams in their existing markets. He supported the Canadian Assistance Plan, designed to help Canadian teams with revenues in Canadian dollars but paying salaries in US dollars (worth about 50% more at the time). The Oilers certainly benefited from the plan, and it may have helped prevent the team leaving town in 1998. Bettman wants stability in the NHL, and relocating franchises is a last-ditch option. I'm not sure that an owner can even move a team unilaterally without league approval.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
Putting on the Katz businessman hat once again, threatening to move the team is standard negotiating strategy. I am amazed how many people, including Edmonton city councillors, respond to this threat. Even if Bettman gives his blessing to move the Oilers, Edmonton is currently one of the most lucrative hockey markets in the world. Our ticket (and beer) prices are near the top of the NHL, and merchandise sales have to be solid as well. I remember seeing someone with a Nugent-Hopkins Oilers jersey about a week after he was <i>drafted</i>. At that point nobody was even sure if he would play in the NHL that year, but someone spent $150 for the jersey regardless. This town loves the Oilers, and puts its money where its mouth is.<br />
<br />
So no wonder people freak out when the prospect of the Oilers leaving town comes up. I think it's all bluff, but even if I'm wrong and the NHL leaves town, it won't be for long. This is too rich a market to be untapped, especially when the majority of teams seem to be struggling financially.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Should the Oilers become a community-owned team?</b><br />
<br />
I'm not sure why this comes up as part of the arena debate. Maybe Katz is perceived as the obstacle, and if there was a new ownership group more committed to hockey than profit, the arena would get built. I like the idea of a publicly-owned franchise, and it certainly works in Green Bay. I'm sure many hockey fans would chip in for a few shares each. But there's a flaw here: how would a community-owned team pony up $100 million, much less be in a position to make future financial guarantees as Katz has?<br />
<br />
A consortium like Cal Nichols' EIG might work, where a dozen or so fairly wealthy investors would own the team. They would have the resources invest cash and commit to the future, but why would they negotiate any differently than Katz has? They would presumably be experienced businesspeople who would no more want to negotiate a bad deal for themselves than a single owner would. In other words, why would a small group of people do things any differently than a single person? Their interests are the same.<br />
<br />
I doubt Katz would sell the team in any event, unless forced to.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Why can't we just get it done?</b><br />
<br />
I hear this every afternoon on the Team 1260: just build it already. I really sympathize with this thinking, that we should not worry about getting the best possible deal, just a deal good enough to make it happen. The Seattle deal announced yesterday - quite the coincidence - involves
public money but the terms are so much better for the public than what
we have on the table here. Until yesterday, city council struck me as complete pushovers in this negotiation. But they showed some backbone for the first time and said no to Katz' new demands and reaffirmed the previous agreement is as far as they will go.<br />
<br />
As soon as one party starts to say things like "we need this at any cost", you have no leverage. A fair agreement is almost impossible to negotiate if one side knows how badly the other party wants it. The more desperate you are, the worse a deal you get. You would not go into a job interview saying "I want this job so bad I'll take any salary," even if it were true. Same principle here. It would be a huge strategic mistake for either side to eliminate the possibility that they could walk away from the deal at any time.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>What happens if the deal dies?</b><br />
<br />
The Oilers have a rental agreement with Northlands for another two years. I guess they would keep playing there beyond 2014 absent a better facility and assuming the team is still in town. As a hockey venue, it is small by today's standards, and the ice quality is a problem. You would think ice would not be an issue in a cold, dry city like Edmonton, and it never used to be, but it is now. You notice it during games: passes jumping sticks, skates getting caught in ruts. This must be a solvable problem. Invest in new ice-making equipment, especially if you know you'll be there more than a couple of years. But there's really no reason NHL hockey can't continue at the old coliseum for a while. And let's not forget that this is where great things happened not too long ago. Physically the building is dated, cramped and ugly, but it has history and tradition and that should count for something. If the new arena is not built, it will be a giant missed opportunity for downtown, but we'll have saved a boatload of taxpayer cash and still have a half-decent place to watch the best hockey in the world.<br />
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Take a deep breath, Edmonton. Everything will be fine, one way or another.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-87587480913688337772012-08-16T14:12:00.001-06:002012-08-16T15:09:14.380-06:00The Wile E. Coyote MomentWhen I was a kid, the Bugs Bunny Road Runner Hour was the best possible show available on either of the two channels we had. A couple of generations grew up watching these cartoons over and over, and they have become some of our most ingrained cultural archetypes. Everyone recognizes Elmer Fudd, Pepe le Pew, Speedy Gonzales, and of course the Coyote and Road Runner. In almost every single Road Runner cartoon there is a scene where the Coyote somehow finds himself running off the edge of a cliff (occasionally with the help of an Acme-brand rocket or slingshot). But he doesn't fall, not immediately. It is only when the cloud of dust clears and he looks down and realizes that he is standing in mid-air, that's when gravity seems to kick in.<br />
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This metaphor, along with the eye of the hurricane analogy, is being used increasingly to describe our economic situation. The idea is that things are much, much worse than they appear, and it's only a matter of time before this becomes obvious. Unfortunately, I subscribe to this theory as well, and I also think that we may already be past the point of no return, we just haven't realized it yet.<br />
<br />
If the warnings become too frequent and obvious to ignore, we might see a wholesale shift in attitudes, which could result in drastic action. Think of a bank run: everything is fine until a critical mass of depositors decide their money isn't safe and want it back at the same time. A change in perception or confidence can result in panic and catastrophe. What if we have a "bank run" on a global scale?<br />
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Today you can buy a 10-year treasury that yields 1.625%, which after subtracting the <i>official</i> CPI rate of 1.4% nets a real return of 0.225%. If you calculate inflation the old-fashioned way like John Williams does at <a href="http://shadowstats.com/">shadowstats.com</a>, CPI is currently about 5% using the methodology from 1990; the 1980 calculation pegs today's inflation rate around 9%. Using these numbers you end up with a guaranteed negative return of up to 7.35%. These numbers suggest bonds might be among the worst places to tie up your money right now. For a long long time bonds have been a solid, conservative investment. At what point do enough people change course from the status quo and move out of bonds? <br />
<br />
We may already have stepped off this cliff without realizing it. China is no longer a net <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-shocking-source-us-treasury-demand-past-year" target="_blank">buyer of US treasuries</a> but is using their money to snap up <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hoarding-continues-china-has-imported-more-gold-six-months-portugals-entire-gold-reserves" target="_blank">physical gold</a> instead. In order to keep financing its deficits, the US needs to keep selling bonds. When demand is down the market solution would be to raise interest rates, but the Fed needs to keep rates artificially low so that interest payments do not spiral out of control. So, the Fed steps in to buy treasuries, I guess with I.O.U.s or some trick that ultimately inflates the money supply. Connecting the dots, absent any kind of spending control or restraint, there is either inflation or much higher interest rates in the future. Most likely the former then the latter, like in the late 1970's.<br />
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If enough people think this way, then I believe we would be plummeting towards the canyon floor instead of being suspended in mid-air. We may be around the corner from such an attitude shift. The timing is extremely difficult to predict, since we are talking about <a href="http://www.fourthturning.com/" target="_blank">generational phases</a> and the decades-long economic seasons of the <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnfqpCzjMLjBYthvK2ScJzg_3VFhpcYYyzDDs6kotN5tKhdADMqw70J2i0GVs8-v1QUsT80fzwbItzMCr5xdfyJXHwzmVHG2yvLydJHt-9D5D3L58xIqljhKCBUQz_aV8acWaoNdCQlwQ/s1600/kondratieff-cycle.jpg" target="_blank">Kondratieff cycle</a>. If this type of economic watershed comes to pass, it could well be years from now. But I believe there is mounting evidence that it will happen sooner, perhaps in the next few months or even weeks.<br />
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Right now the world appears to be heading into a food crisis, with massive droughts pushing food prices higher; many believe this was the spark behind the Arab spring uprisings in 2008 and has the potential to cause similar unrest now. Domestic chaos is also fuelled by very high youth unemployment rates in many countries, and by the ever-increasing gap between rich and... well, the rest of us. After much management of the paper price, precious metals have consolidated and look poised to go up, as they almost always do in September. Europe is a series of dominoes that could start falling very soon. The US election may be a distraction, or it may focus attention and awareness on some of these issues; in either case America will have to face some kind of reality in November if not sooner. And of course, October is always a dangerous month for stocks.<br />
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Maybe this is just a gut feeling that something big is coming. I could be dead wrong. Or I might be overestimating the chance of it happening so quickly. But given all that is going on, I find it prudent right now to avoid stocks and bonds and stick to cash and precious metals. I may miss out on a great opportunity if I'm wrong, but that's a slight risk I'm comfortable with for the next few months while I sleep at night. The alternative strategy - don't look down - might work for a little while in the cartoons, but here in the real world never ends well.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-2638597191069642952012-07-12T14:27:00.000-06:002012-07-12T15:10:00.677-06:00TimbitsIn my house and in many, many others, May and June are known as "soccer season". Our three girls all play soccer. This means soccer games or practices six days a week for two months. For parents, soccer season is a tactical exercise involving complex scheduling and Google maps to get each player to the right field at the right time. It's a commitment for sure, but the kids love playing and I get a kick out of watching their progress. Sometimes as a parent you have to muster a little extra enthusiasm for things like school Christmas concerts, but I truly enjoy watching my girls play soccer.<br />
<br />
They play at a fairly competitive level now, but they all started at 3 or 4 years old. Tim Hortons heavily sponsors this age group, so much so that soccer players under 8 are often called by the name on the front of their jerseys - Timbits. Timbits soccer is more about swarming the ball and kicking it into the shins of the player in front of you; actual field positioning and strategy come later. It's mainly running around and having fun, and the kids are still too young for the hyper-competitive parents (dads, mostly) to start yelling at them and the ref. A few Timbits medals, which are awarded to every player, are still on display in our house.<br />
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I have very happy memories of my own playing soccer as an eight-year-old. There was only one game a week, always Saturday morning. I would bike about five minutes from home to Rosedale Park, usually on my own. After the game we would often go to Beckers for a popsicle or a bottle of coke, if we had money. <br />
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Now soccer is played at any number of fields across the city. This year maybe one-third of our games were within walking or biking distance from home. We have a perfectly good field in the park two minutes from our house, but we were lucky to play there twice all year. Most players are chauffeured to each game. Also, players on a team live in the same general part of the city, but rarely in the same neighbourhood. A lot of this has to do with how the soccer league is managed. The priority is for teams to play other teams at the same skill level, so a lot of tiering and mid-season scheduling takes place. But I wonder what these kids are missing by not being able to get to the games on their own, or to be able to hang out with friends afterwards.<br />
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A few years back the girls' elementary school was on the closure list. It was a unique situation, in that enrollment was not declining, but they wanted to close the school to consolidate with another one nearby, supposedly to secure big renovation money for the receiving school. I have a lot to say on this topic, but for now the short story is the school stayed open and the receiving school ended up being closed the following year. For parents and concerned community members, this required a large effort over several months to learn how the process works and to lobby to keep the school open.<br />
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I did a lot of research during this time. Our school was small (about 150 students) but it seemed to work well at that size. Everyone knew each other, and the older kids helped the younger ones out with their winter boots or by being a reading buddy. The research more than confirmed our intuition that smaller schools are usually more functional and provide better outcomes both in education and towards the children's personal development. Part of it is having a school right in your neighbourhood which fosters a sense of community, and is obviously healthier as more kids can walk or bike instead of taking a bus. (Another surprising fact: there are rarely any economies of scale in larger schools - small schools usually cost the same or less than a big-box school, per student.)<br />
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Having a stable, local school close to home is important for young children. Unfortunately many are now growing up in an environment where every activity requires an adult and a vehicle. I believe this instills a kind of geographical disconnect for the child, as well as more reliance on parents and less opportunity to explore, hang out, create, invent, or anything else a kid would normally do on their own. Will these children grow up viewing life as transient, just moving from one place to another? Will they be able to develop responsibility, citizenship, and pride in their community?<br />
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The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Urbanism" target="_blank">New Urbanism</a>, a movement about making cities more livable, has a core principle that a neighbourhood that works should have an elementary school within walking distance. I found during our school closure wars that most people think of schools as simply a building where education happens. Schools are so much more; they are perhaps the most important part of a community. They determine what kind of population will live nearby. They provide opportunities to connect, for children, parents, and others in the community. They double as sports facilities, voting stations, meeting places, and increasingly offer "wrap-around" services like preschools and health clinics. I came to the conclusion that closing a school is the single worst thing you can do to a neighbourhood.<br />
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In Edmonton and similar cities built up in the automobile age and with no geographical limitations, sprawl has been the natural tendency for a long time. It becomes normal to live in a suburb and drive everywhere. Only recently have there been so many cars on the road that the commuting lifestyle is starting to be questioned. Short-sighted city planners allow huge new developments on the outskirts of town without thinking through the longer term impacts. These new "communities" are usually low-density homes separated from any recreation or shopping by busy traffic arteries. If you want to leave the house, a car is almost always required.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/08/the-popsicle-and-halloween-tests-what-makes-a-place-livable/244021/" target="_blank">popsicle test</a> is a quick way to evaluate a neighbourhood's livability. The test is: can an eight-year-old child go to the store on his own, buy a popsicle, and get home before it melts? The home where I grew up passed the popsicle test. I would guess the majority of Edmonton's neighbourhoods do not pass the popsicle test, and probably none of the newer ones. The main reasons are busy roads and the homogeneity of residential zoning, meaning there are no more corner stores to buy popsicles at the end of the block. The closest popsicle is at Safeway in the commercial zone across the main road.<br />
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And of course, once people move into these treeless mazes of winding crescents that all seem to have the same name, they expect a school for their kids. In Alberta, the construction and location of new schools is mainly a provincial matter; city officials and local school boards have some input but no vote. So what happens is the provincial government looks at these new developments and decides that's a good place for a new school (usually this decision comes a few months before an election).<br />
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This seems logical at first, but it's the beginning of a vicious circle. Now the school board has one more school to support, and the overall utilization rate goes down. Because so much depends on this utilization rate, there is a strong incentive to reduce classroom spaces elsewhere, and it is often the school in the central or mature neighbourhood that ends up on the chopping block. This has happened several times in Edmonton, and has been repeated in cities across North America. Once the school is closed, families do not move in and mostly leave the neighbourhood. Once a neighbourhood no longer has enough young families, it ceases to be a vibrant place to live. The ultimate effect is like a cancer eating away at a city from the centre outwards. As people move farther and farther away, the core slowly dies; this is the donut hole syndrome which has made many cities unlivable. What happens next can be even worse, as the sprawl goes beyond the city limits, so the tax base shifts to other municipalities outside the main city. Detroit is a good example: hardly anyone actually lives in the city of Detroit, they have all moved into the surrounding bedroom communities.<br />
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Edmonton is not quite there yet. Up until 2010, the Edmonton Public School Board was continuing to close schools, always in mature areas that need them the most. New suburban developments continued to be approved. But the mayor and city council have started to address ways to repopulate and re-energize older, central neighbourhoods. A new, responsive board of school trustees has put a moratorium on closing schools and is looking at ways to work with the city and the province on these concerns. But the provincial government keeps putting new schools in new developments as quickly as they can. In fact, <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta/Finance+Minister+Doug+Horner+says+Alberta+build+schools/6919692/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_education" target="_blank">just today</a> they announced they will keep building new schools whether the demand is there or not.<br />
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Edmonton is not Manhattan, or Hong Kong, or Vancouver. It will never be at risk of crowding all its residents like sardines into tall condo buildings. There will always be the option to live a suburban lifestyle, and there will probably always be
a part of the population that prefers it. But we need to at least have
the choice for families to live in non-suburban areas too, where a car is not essential. Closing schools limits such choices. I hope my kids don't grow up thinking that spending two hours a day in a minivan is normal.<br />
<br />
Diversity is another pillar of New Urbanism, that neighbourhoods should have different types of dwellings - apartments, condos, rowhouses, detached houses - to attract a population that is diverse in age and economic status. A healthy, vibrant community has residents who are young and old, rich and poor, single and married. This is where I want to live. I want the variety pack full of every kind of timbit, not a stale old donut with a crumbling hole in the middle.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-88060956041312667942012-06-15T15:19:00.000-06:002012-06-15T16:31:59.672-06:00O Brave New World<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>Miranda</b>: O brave new world / That has such people in't!<br />
<b>Prospero</b>: 'Tis new to thee.<br />
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- <u>The Tempest</u> (V.i.183-184)</blockquote>
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Three people were shot and killed at the University of Alberta shortly after midnight. News on this story is still breaking. Also, my eldest daughter becomes a teenager today, so I've been mentally processing this story in the context of the world she is growing up in.<br />
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I first found out about the incident this morning through Twitter. I suppose I could have got the news watching TV or listening to the radio, but my usual morning routine is a cup of coffee and going online to check email and a few of my favorite blogs. Despite its simplicity, Twitter is a breakthrough in communications; anyone in the world can know instantly when something happens. There is a "six degrees of separation" element, where someone you follow can retweet someone they follow, and so on. In my feed, the first mention of the shooting was a retweet of a reporter's post which came in at 1:20am, less than an hour after the incident. By the time I woke up several people I follow has also retweeted the news so, on Twitter at least, it was hard to miss.<br />
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Around 11am the police held a press conference and released the name of a person of interest. Within a few seconds this was all over Twitter, almost like an Amber Alert as there is a manhunt ongoing. A few minutes after that people were tweeting this person's Facebook page, Twitter account, and even his profile from a dating website called Plenty of Fish. The speed at which this information has been discovered and shared is amazing. And of course, we are all psychoanalysing this person based on his tweets and profile pictures. It's not quite a lynch mob, but there are similarities.<br />
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It appears that the shooting occurred during an armed robbery, and the victims are all employees of the armoured car security company that was servicing the ATMs in HUB Mall on the University campus. I have to admit, and I mean no disrespect to those affected by the killings, that when I learned about the robbery aspect of the tragedy I was in some way relieved. The awfulness, the horror is still there, but at least we understand the motive and are not left wondering why. I lived in Montreal during the Polytechnique massacre in 1989 and the reasons for that tragedy were incomprehensible. When an unexpected trauma hits, I think we feel disoriented while we try to somehow fit these shocking new facts into our understanding of the world. Being able to connect the dots helps. Having no understanding of why a madman decided to target 14 women made the Montreal massacre that much more traumatic. Maybe it's as simple as knowing the shooter wanted money, and isn't looking for more victims. We hope, anyway - he's still at large. (Also, the Ecole Polytechnique killing spree lasted about 90 minutes from
Marc Lepine's arrival to his suicide. I wonder how differently those events might have gone in the age of smart phones and Twitter.)<br />
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As this story was unfolding, there were some complaints by students about - well, I'm not sure, I guess they weren't notified properly, or quickly enough. Enough that the U of A responded to questions on their website updates, explaining that the Crisis Management Team was activated and how their decisions were made. In this case they were assured by police that the suspect was no longer on campus. Two things struck me here, the first being that to me the speed and quality of communications has been excellent. I'm old enough to remember when word-of-mouth and the radio were the prime sources of breaking news. Now all you need is an internet connection and you can know something virtually as it happens. If you're twenty and you grew up with this technology, your perspective is different.<br />
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The other thing I noticed was that here we are right in the middle of a developing crisis with many unknowns, and people seem to be questioning the actions or lack of action of the U of A. The crisis team apparently did not want to alarm students needlessly, and their information at the time was that there was no longer any danger on campus. Some students expect everything instantaneously, and also don't understand imperfect decision-making in the fog of war. This is a generational fault line. On the older side there is an underappreciation for the connectedness of technologies and the expectation of on-demand information that the younger group has known most of their lives. The younger generation has little experience in any sort of crisis, and does not always appreciate that sometimes you have to do the best with what you have. Slow but pragmatic vs. immediate but demanding.<br />
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Well, Miss, this is the brave new world in which you're coming into your own. Technology changes, and sometimes people change as a result. Bad stuff happens, but remember we're just a bunch of people mainly trying to do the right things. Happy birthday, sweetheart.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-6966914926154667002012-06-12T13:17:00.001-06:002012-06-12T15:48:14.279-06:00Zero ToleranceA local high school teacher was recently suspended for giving a grade of zero to a student who did not hand in an assignment. There is a little context, but the absurdity of it is right there in one sentence. The background is that many schools and school districts are implementing "no zero" policies that prevent a teacher from giving a grade of zero. Part of this movement has to do with well-meaning educators, who feel that grades should be a reflection of what a student knows, and it is unlikely a missed assignment means the student has absolutely zero knowledge of the subject. Also, when grading assignments mostly in the 70% - 90% range, a single 0% can dramatically lower the overall mark to the point where the student may feel it is pointless to try to salvage the year. There are some less noble incentives as well, such as artificially propping up school averages (which can impact funding) and high school completion rates.<br />
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The Edmonton Public School Board does not have any specific guidelines on zero grades. But the high school in question does, which the principal has every right to implement and enforce. In this case the teacher has been reprimanded several times for violating the No Zero policy, and his suspension was a result of not following the rules. When this story hit the newspaper it seemed to strike a nerve, and an online poll showed roughly 97% of respondents supported the teacher's right to hand out a zero grade (this was out of more than 13,000 votes, so I'd consider it a big enough sample to be accurate). Many teachers wrote in support of the no zero policy, many others in support of zeroes.<br />
<br />
My daughter's junior high has grades of A, B, C and D. No F. The corresponding percentages show that a D ranges from 0 (wait - what?) to 49 percent. Back in my day, that was an F. There are also indicators for "unable to assess" and "incomplete" among others. My guess is the unable to assess means the student didn't hand in his work on time. But it looks like you can be a C student with a 50% average, which is a form of grade inflation. The C earned today isn't worth as much as a C from 20 years ago, but it is treated as equivalent. Maybe this is why the minimum high school averages required by universities keeps going up. Which probably encourages more grade inflation to keep up - a vicious circle. As average grades get higher and higher, the impact of a zero is even more noticeable.<br />
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Grades should be measuring actual student achievement, not potential. If a student has mastered the subject material but does badly on a test, do we add up the right and wrong answers, or should we change the C into a B because we know the student is capable of better? Certainly at post-secondary schools (and for the rest of your life) your grade depends on how well you perform, and high school students should be held to this standard as well. I fully support the teacher for giving out a zero, especially since he does it reluctantly and only after several warnings. I also support the school board for suspending the teacher, as he violated a clear condition of his employment whether he agrees with it or not. Actions and consequences.<br />
<br />
The zero grade issue is part of a larger trend in our society. We want nothing but success; failure is not an option. The biggest example of this is the bailout mentality in the financial system. Essentially, banks and other financial companies do stupid things that lose so much money they should be bankrupt. But instead of punishing incompetence with failure, these institutions are rewarded with large loans that ultimately come from taxpayers. In the moment of crisis the fear of "systemic failure" justifies keeping all these interconnected banks solvent. But the lesson learned is that risky behaviour has no downside. It would be nice if you could go to Vegas and bet a stack of chips on a hand of hold'em, and if you lose the casino would give you more chips.<br />
<br />
Iceland's rogue banks were among the worst ever for going in over their head with all kinds of risky, idiotic currency schemes a few years ago. When things went wrong (as they always will, when you go all in with your poker chips again and again) the people refused to allow their government to use their money for bailouts. Protesters with torches actually stormed the <i>Althing</i> - the Icelandic parliament, and forced a referendum where the people voted to stick the banks with their own losses. The banks imploded, investors were punished, and there was a lot of pain to go around. But four years later, look who has the best GDP growth in Europe. Iceland has gone from negative 6.6% growth in 2009 to positive 4.5% this year. The message here, ignored by pretty much every other country on the planet with a banking problem, is that you can punish bad behaviour, take your lumps, and move on. The world does not end. It's actually healthy.<br />
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Whether it's missing high school assignments or billion-dollar banks gambling on shaky securities, rewarding failure only encourages more bad behaviour. It is also an injustice to those who completed their assignment on time, or who managed their investments prudently. We ought to accept that there are winners and losers, that sometimes bad things happen, that a little rain must fall. We should live with and learn from failure. We need to be able to tolerate a zero now and then.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-20351997251992512662012-06-04T15:38:00.001-06:002012-06-12T15:31:40.456-06:00A Guide to the InternetI figure I must have been on the internet on average a couple of hours per day for the past few years. According to Malcolm Gladwell's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_%28book%29" target="_blank">10,000-Hour Rule</a> this makes me an internet expert. So I feel I should share my wisdom and expertise freely with the world on how the internet works. Here are a few tips to help you survive and thrive on the internet:<br />
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<ul>
<li>If you are insane, paranoid or just plain wrong about something, the
internet standard is to type in all capital letters so everyone will
know your mental status right away instead of wasting time reading to
find out.</li>
<li>Spelling and grammar are optional. Don't worry that some words, if misspelled, can mean something drastically different than what you intended. Readers should be able to figure out what you really meant if they sound it out phonetically a few times.</li>
<li>Never miss an opportunity to use cryptic abbreviations, even when there is no limit on how many characters you are allowed. Full words are so 2003.</li>
<li>Keep friends and family in the loop with frequent Twitter or
Facebook updates about your meals, wardrobe dilemmas, sores that won't heal, what TV show you plan on watching later, and so forth.</li>
<li>An easy way to keep undesirable readers away from your site is to use a paywall.</li>
<li>Make people fill
out a registration form to be able leave a comment. Only those with
a burning desire to get their point across, or who have lots of time on their hands, will follow through. This should keep more reasonable people from watering down a lively debate.</li>
<li>If you can figure out how to set up a blog, everything you write there will automatically be more important. Because you're a blogger.</li>
<li>Increase website revenue by creating advertisements that move around the screen, so your reader will have to have sharp reflexes and a steady hand to dismiss it without clicking through. And the smaller the "quit" box the better. A transparent background helps confuse the line between ad and content.</li>
<li>If it's on the internet somewhere, it is a fact. This is especially true in the field of natural/alternative medicine.</li>
<li>Spellcheck replaces the need to carefully reread anything you type. Don't waste valuable time by doing both.</li>
<li>When in doubt, use the "reply to all" email feature. Your recipients
can decide whether the content is appropriate for them or not. </li>
<li>If you need to post a link, don't spoil it by explaining what the link is. Most people enjoy a good mystery, and have the time and patience to see where it leads. </li>
<li>If you can't see or hear who you are communicating with, traditional
manners and courtesy do not apply. Rant, scream, call people names, do
whatever you would never do if you were face to face. Think of it as the
internet
equivalent of shouting profanities at another driver when your car
windows are rolled up. Unburden yourself, you'll feel better!</li>
<li>If you receive an important message which urgently needs to be distributed to as many people as possible, it is bad karma to stop and check <a href="http://www.snopes.com/">snopes.com</a>.</li>
<li>You must spend a few hundred dollars a year on a smart phone. For those times when you are not at home or at the office or asleep - your child's Christmas concert, for example - you will need a way to be connected to the internet in case that important message arrives. Be sure to turn on the location feature so the internet knows where you are at all times.</li>
<li>Don't just post articles and stories in a single, drab block of text. Make it fun! Break things up by inserting ads, links to other posts, and mouseover popups to explain basic concepts like "weather". Anything longer than one paragraph should be broken up over several pages. </li>
<li>People often ask not to have email updates when really, deep down, they want them. Send these people emails just in case.</li>
<li>Grab attention by having a video play automatically when people least expect it. Outmoded icons for "stop", "pause" or "mute" should be avoided - use something a little less predictable.</li>
<li>Social media sites are where normal humans go to interact with
others. Do not worry if you are often alone in a dark room while doing
so, it's perfectly healthy. </li>
</ul>
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<ul>
</ul>
You're welcome.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-82658903173481842342012-05-02T13:27:00.000-06:002012-06-04T15:46:57.537-06:00The RebuildThe Edmonton Oilers are at an interesting point in their history. The previous high-water mark was game seven of the cup final in 2006, with a team that had no business being there. Days later Pronger bailed out and the team went into freefall. The Oilers have not made the playoffs since. In the past five seasons they finished 19th, 21st, 30th, 30th and 29th out of 30 teams. Dropping to dead last in the league forced Edmonton to admit something was wrong, and the rebuild was officially on.<br />
<br />
The concept of the rebuild in professional sports is now a given, and examples in hockey like Pittsburgh and Chicago show how it can work. On the other hand some teams like Detroit seem to manage to compete every year without ever having to blow things up. Despite a draft lottery teams finishing at the bottom are guaranteed a high pick, so tanking the last part of a non-playoff season (unofficially, of course) is not a bad strategy. The Oilers turfed their "transition" coach Pat Quinn and promoted the "development" coach Tom Renney in 2010. They have had a series of good drafts to stock the cupboard, thanks to a combination of no-brainer top picks and skill in selecting past the first round.<br />
<br />
This past season the Oilers finished second-last and cleaned out their lockers early for the sixth straight year. If you focus only on the bottom line, things don't look so great. But watching the team play, there was a huge shift this year as many of the younger talents started to find their game. I watched almost every game this year live or on TV, and I don't remember any where the Oil were completely outclassed. They competed every night. And the skill level is simply fun to watch. After trading Smyth in late February 2007 the team won two of its last 20 games; those players had given up, it was a death march to finish out the season and every game was painful to watch. This is night and day: despair vs. hope.<br />
<br />
But this is a town where people talk hockey 52 weeks a year. And with that amount of discussion comes any number of ideas and opinions, good and bad. The current vibe seems to be that the rebuild isn't progressing and maybe coach Renney should be replaced. This is fuelled by the fact that neither coach or general manager have been offered contracts as of today (the usual process would be to either re-sign or let go staff by now). I don't understand this whatsoever unless it's simply impatience. A rebuild doesn't have to take several years, but anyone who can't see how much better this team is now compared to a couple of seasons ago, well, doesn't know hockey.<br />
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If I were owner Daryl Katz, here is what I would do (after swimming in my pile of gold coins, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzba7V8uB04" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Scrooge McDuck</a>-style):<br />
<ul>
<li>Give GM <b>Steve Tambellini</b> a one-year extension. I'm not a huge fan and I think he would be easily replaceable. Some of his moves have been quite good: picking Ryan Jones off waivers, getting full value for Dustin Penner. And he deserves credit for stocking up on extra draft picks at the right time. Some other moves I didn't like so much: signing Khabibulin to a fairly long and expensive contract, and the whole Patrick O'Sullivan and Sheldon Souray debacles. Mainly it's the lack of action and decisiveness that I question. I understand this is not the time where the team needs to plug a hole with a splashy UFA signing. But incidents like flying up Paajarvi from the farm, only to fly him right back since he was ineligible to play, doesn't reflect well on management skill. I'm still confused by the Gilbert-Schultz deal as well. On the whole I think Tambo has been average at best.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Bring back <b>Tom Renney</b>. I would give him another two year deal, although usually the coach's contract does not exceed the general manager's. Renney is the right man for the job: he has had prior success in working with young players (with a .714 winning percentage in the WHL) and has NHL playoff experience too. I have no doubt that during his tenure as head coach, some of his decisions were made based on future payoff and not necessarily winning the immediate battle. Specifically, some line combinations and roster moves were probably more about discovery and development. You have to credit the coaching staff for the huge turnaround in special teams: 3rd best power play in the league and an average PK compared to bottom-five rankings in both the previous year. One criticism I have is his line changes: there were a lot of too-many-men penalties. It seems Renney is very strict about shift length and often I see players willingly turn over the puck because it's time for them to get off the ice. In a game where puck possession is key (so much so that you can make a living in the NHL just by winning faceoffs) I don't get it. But Renney deserves a chance to see the seeds of his work grow and thrive. He hasn't had all the pieces yet, but in a year or two he should have all the talent required for a successful team. Then we'll know.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Give head of scouting <b>Stu MacGregor</b> whatever he wants. It's still early to crown him a genius, but the past few drafts under his watch have gone well. The first-rounders all look good so far, and picks like Hartikainen (163rd overall) and Tyler Bunz (121st overall) might just end up as solid NHLers. If the due diligence on Yakupov shows he will not defect to the KHL then this should be the pick this year. I trust Stu not to screw it up. Drafting based on current organizational need doesn't work (look at the parade of coke machines drafted over the past few years to address the size issue).</li>
</ul>
On that topic, why is everyone so concerned about the defense? The Oilers have four decent D-men in Smid, Petry, Schultz and Whitney (health permitting). Potter and Sutton are more than adequate for now, and I still think Teddy Peckman is in the mix - letting Peckham walk now would be a mistake. Klefbom, Musil and possibly Marincin look to be for real and should be ready in a year or two. Also, drafting defencemen is more of a crapshoot than forwards, and they usually take longer to develop. It makes more sense to grab the best player available in the draft instead of trying to plug holes right now.<br />
<br />
I believe that Sam Gagner has a great hockey career ahead of him, and should be a key asset for the Oilers if they can lock him up. He's only outscored Hemsky the past three years at half the price. The kid is smart, a gamer and still only 22. Future captain.<br />
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<br />
We should know soon if Dubnyk is the man - this season showed he can handle the number one workload. He keeps getting better, he just needs that consistency that top goalies have. His confidence is improving too, which he showed with his poke-checks and stacked-pad breakaway challenges at the blue line. I personally think he might be the next Ken Dryden.<br />
<br />
And here's a litmus test for the GM, whoever it is: re-sign Ryan Smyth for
$2M or less. He's a good fit/role model for the Oilers, and he pretty
much only wants to play for one team. I doubt Ryan wants a repeat of his
teary farewell, so should be ready to negotiate. Call his bluff.<br />
<br />
Resonable goals for the Edmonton Oilers should be to make the playoffs next season, and then win a playoff series the following year. After that, according to the rebuild plan, they ought to be challenging for a Stanley Cup. Unless they stray from the script and do something idiotic, like hiring a Sutter to coach the team back into the stone age.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-48805833025529212372012-04-24T14:09:00.000-06:002012-04-24T16:59:09.189-06:00JiltedLordy (as we Albertans say) what an election. Looking on from afar it would seem that little has changed: another Progressive Conservative majority while the Liberals and NDP putter along with a handful of seats each. Weren't the Wildrose supposed to make some noise? The pollsters must have screwed up.<br />
<br />
Actually, a number of big and surprising things happened and there is nothing like the old status quo in Alberta today. The Wildrose, our new Republican party, led all election polls from wire to wire during the campaign. Many headlines this morning are pointing a finger at the pollsters and how inaccurate they were, even though this same polling information was used yesterday to make bold predictions. I think the polls were in fact accurate, including the final one done by Forum the day before the election. The Forum poll showed a sudden 4% gain for the PC and an equally sharp 3% drop for Wildrose (which still had Wildrose leading 38% to 36%). Nothing newsworthy happened in the last 48 hours, but I believe there was a lot of last-minute soul searching happening after the last poll was done. Possibly even in the voting booth itself. In fact, the polls that consistently pointed to a Wildrose government may have helped give many voters cold feet. The seed of doubt may have been planted with a couple of prominent
Wildrose candidates' inappropriate comments (and possibly the
fact that their leader endorsed this as freedom of speech). The PC voter was enjoying a whirlwind romance with the sexy, exciting new Wildrose. It got serious and they set a date. But when the big day arrived, PC stood her up at the altar. <br />
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<br />
We may have dodged a bullet, but it won't be the last one. Over one-third of the province voted Wildrose: for every five people who voted PC, four voted Wildrose. Wildrose is not going away anytime soon. Many of the PC-Wildrose showdowns could have gone the other way quite easily. There were 16 constituencies where the PC beat the Wildrose by under one thousand votes. The potential to form the government was defintiely there. Now they have to prove they are a credible opposition party, as opposed to a bunch of amateurish bigots who think that "commandments" and "laws" are interchangeable terms. Just sayin'.<br />
<br />
Watching from the left, I'm not sure exactly what has been happening to the Progressive Conservative party. They seemed to benefit from a lot of strategic anyone-but-Wildrose voting last night, mainly at the expense of the Liberals. This confirms the gradual move to the centre under the leadership of Alison Redford. I think it was the defection of the far right to Wildrose that started the process a few years ago. Perhaps there is some hope for progressives in Alberta, that the PC party might move far enough to the left, or at least away from the right, that it becomes palatable.<br />
<br />
(Although I confess I have a hard time with these right and left labels. I think of myself as progressive and on the left, but have a bit of a libertarian streak that is commonly associated with the right. Generally I'm more conservative on financial issues, but I find in practice the lefty parties actually have a better economic track record than governments from the right. Here's my definition instead. If you care only about yourself, you want everyone to be like you and everything to be the way it used to be, that's right wing. If you care about others, embrace diversity and accept change, that's left wing.)<br />
<br />
So we find ourselves with a continuation of the PC dynasty which will become the longest ever in Canada in a couple of years, and a swath of green that is mainly confined to the rural areas in the south. The Wildrose managed only two seats out of 48 in Alberta's four largest cities, and only one win in the northern half of the province. This geography has the potential to be very polarizing.<br />
<br />
I was surprised by Raj Sherman, who showed a lot of class and experience even though his own seat was in doubt most of the evening. He ended up winning by 118 votes. Today he is a survivor, as are the Liberals who were is legitimate danger of being shut out. Had he lost, his political career would likely be over as a failed leader. I have no doubt he was aware of this as he spoke last night, how different his life would be depending on a few dozen voters.<br />
<br />
I was also encouraged by tone of the New Democrats. They doubled their seat count (from two to four), but there seemed to be a new spirit of cooperation and moderation as well. Maybe the Wildrose scared the crap out of everyone else so that the differences between the three traditional parties don't seem so bad all of a sudden.<br />
<br />
We may just be at the start of a new political maturity in Alberta. But I have faith we'll find a way to drag ourselves back to the gutter somehow. Things change, but not too much.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-82067872186566943402012-04-20T11:40:00.000-06:002012-04-20T13:20:32.882-06:00Strategic VotingStrategic voting is a loaded term. It has connotations of selling out and abandoning your principles. I understand this viewpoint, but it's far too idealistic in the real world of politics with real-world consequences. In my opinion it describes citizens participating in their democracy as effectively as possible. Consider this: if even 10% of the Floridians who voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 would have voted strategically instead, George Bush would not have become president. That's a real-world consequence of following your conscience instead of playing the game.<br />
<br />
I certainly did not follow my conscience when I became a member of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta last year. I have never voted PC in my life, and I don't plan to start anytime soon although I do try to keep an open mind. But when the second leadership ballot looked like a close race between Gary Mar and Alison Redford, I decided it was worth it to spend five bucks and hold my nose to help choose the lesser of two evils to run our province. I'm not sure if I helped make the world a better place or not, but I don't regret doing this. I ripped up my PC membership card the next day, although I'm now on their damn mailing list forever.<br />
<br />
Monday's provincial election is the first one in forty years that may not end up with a majority PC government. There is also a fair chance that the Wildrose party will form the government. The polls are very close right now, and there has been a lot more noise and bias than usual in the polling data so it's hard to know. In some ways I'm almost hoping for a Wildrose win just so we can officially hit rock bottom. I can only imagine the daily stream of offensive, bigoted comments that seem to be the specialty of Wildrose candidates. I doubt the Wildrose honeymoon would last very long - it would be more like waking up hung over with a naked stranger in your bed who you thought looked pretty good the night before.<br />
<br />
So despite being <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/alberta-election/white-advantage-quip-lands-another-wildrose-candidate-in-hot-water/article2405974/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Politics&utm_content=2405974" target="_blank">Caucasian</a> and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/04/18/albertavotes2012-mayors-wildrose-reaction.html" target="_blank">heterosexual</a>, I will not be voting Wildrose. Nor will I be voting PC even though the local candidate is likely to win his fifth election in a row. Which leaves me with three centre/left so-called "progressive" options: the Alberta Party, NDP and Liberal.<br />
<br />
Unlike their national cousins, the Alberta NDP are rooted in their traditional politics and seem content to be the vocal minority. I voted NDP in the last federal election partly because I saw a new commitment to becoming a responsible, reasonable, professional party capable of governing. I don't see this in Alberta yet.<br />
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I would like to give my vote to the Alberta Party as encouragement for the future. If there is any hope of uniting the progressive side of Alberta politics, this might be the best party to make it happen. I've just been reviewing some of their platform online, and I find it a little vague in places but on the whole it represents what I believe in. I hope the AP can elect one or two MLAs next week: Sue Huff, leader Glenn Taylor and a couple of others have realistic chances.<br />
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But I will likely support my local Liberal candidate, for three reasons and despite one. The one negative is I have no confidence in Liberal leader Raj Sherman. He has one election under his belt (as a PC) and seems to be unable to articulate his party's vision. I have supported the ALP in the past mainly because of their common-sense platform under former leaders Kevin Taft and David Swann. The party is now in danger of being wiped off the map and even Sherman's own seat is not a certainty.<br />
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On the other hand, I have read through Rick Szostak's <a href="http://www.rickszostak.ca/" target="_blank">website</a> and he strikes me as intelligent, earnest and generally a deserving candidate. Then I heard second-hand reports from last night's candidates forum that he was by far the most impressive in answering questions and addressing issues. Finally, the closest thing to a organized strategic vote, <a href="http://www.changealberta.ca/default.aspx" target="_blank">ChangeAlberta</a>, has recommended Rick as the progressive choice in my constituency. </div>
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Unless there are any last-minute gaffes or polling surprises, I think this is where my vote is going on Monday. It is somewhat strategic but I will still be able to sleep at night. I can only look forward to the day where my vote actually matters, instead of merely sending a message. But there are a lot of races where the Wildrose and PCs may split the conservative vote almost evenly, and here is where strategic voting might make a difference. It's worth a shot. The alternative is to split the progressive vote even more thinly, and wake up the morning after groping for the aspirin.</div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-11331235248937991092012-04-19T17:29:00.000-06:002012-04-20T11:54:55.017-06:00It Is What It IsOne common issue with money is what it is "backed" by. I guess this way of looking at it stems from paper money's origin as a receipt for tangible gold at the local goldsmith's. This grew into convertibility of national currencies: you could convert a dollar into a prescribed amount of gold on demand. Once upon a time if you took a dollar to the bank you could actually walk out with gold in your pocket. The dollar was backed by gold.<br />
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But what is gold backed by? I'm starting to hear this question more and more - maybe that in itself is a sign of a growing awareness of fiat money and precious metals. Time-travelling back a few hundred years, I think this question would have been laughed at. Because gold is hard to find and dig up it has scarcity value. Its other properties make it the best money we have on earth, and most cultures over time have accepted gold as a store of value. Many countries still do, India being the prime example. For most of history and even now in many places, you would have no trouble exchanging gold for whatever you want. <br />
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On the other hand, people in the western world have lost that connection to gold and don't really know what it's worth. We in the advanced economy no longer "get" gold - we don't understand its value. If it's not backed by something else that has value we can understand then what good is it? Warren Buffett gets his hate on for gold as an inert metal: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; padding-left: 30px;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of
this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet
per side. Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.</span> A century from now the 170,000 tons of gold will be
unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can
fondle the cube, but it will not respond.</span></div>
</blockquote>
True enough - gold doesn't produce. It's not a power plant, it's a battery that stores the power.<br />
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I believe one of the reasons gold is a near-perfect money is that it<i> isn't</i> productive, meaning it doesn't do anything or have any other uses besides being gold. Gold is what it is, nothing more or less. Even precious metals like platinum and silver have considerable industrial use, which makes it difficult to value it purely on scarcity. Also, as industry actually uses these other metals, they get used up, so the quantity is variable.<br />
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Maybe the right question isn't what is backed by what else, but how confident are you that your money will be worth the same when you spend it as when you earned it? How good a store of value is it? Gold generally holds its value over the long term compared to things like wheat, real estate or even oil. Unlike fiat currencies, bitcoins or seashells, you can't just create more. There is a finite endowment of gold in the ground, which can only be mined at an increasingly slower pace. Which means you have a good idea what it will be worth tomorrow (the volatility in the "price" of gold is actually the dollar). Currently you might have to temporarily turn it into dollars before exchanging gold for some other commodity or service. But somebody will always be happy to take your gold anywhere you go and give you something equally valuable in return.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7939576662804050586.post-16555173879447047172012-04-02T12:39:00.001-06:002012-04-20T15:59:30.780-06:00Natural GasI've spent a fair bit of time over the past few years reading up on peak oil, and I think I have a better than average understanding of the dynamics of oil and gas. However this has not led to any spectacular investment success, and quite often just the opposite.<br />
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A quick note on peak oil: all this means is that someday, oil production will hit a maximum. This has been labelled a "theory" although it really just simple common sense. If oil is finite, eventually it will start running out. Unless you believe in abiotic oil - a truly unproven theory where oil is spontaneously created somehow deep underground, and seeps into the crust so new supplies of oil are constantly available. As with all things, we tend to go after the biggest, easiest rewards first; this is simply being efficient. So what's left is generally in smaller fields and increasingly more difficult to get at. The real peak oil debate is not so much whether the concept is valid, but when do we hit the peak? It could be centuries from now, or just a few years away, or months, or it may have already happened.<br />
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Oil is a global market, since the commodity has recognized standards such as Brent and WTI, and is relatively easily transported across land and sea. Relatively with respect to natural gas, which does not really operate on a global market. The main reason is it is hard to transport natural gas across an ocean. It can be liquefied, but this is expensive, technically challenging, and if I recall about 20% of the energy content is used up in the process. Although liquefied natural gas use is growing quickly, it only accounts for about 11% of worldwide natural gas. Japan is a big LNG importer, especially since they had to shut down their nuclear system - right now they pay close to ten times the North American spot price for Russian LNG.<br />
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Gas is really a continental market since you can really only supply markets connected to the wells by pipeline. In North America the recent news is all about shale gas, and how new breakthroughs in fracturing are able to unlock huge amounts of natural gas. Double current reserves, according to the International Energy Agency. I don't know if there has been a frenzy of shale gas production or if it's more based on expectations, but natural gas prices have plummeted: $1.98 per million BTUs Henry Hub spot at the moment. This benchmark spent most of the last decade over $5 including a couple of spikes in 2005 and 2008 over $12.<br />
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Unlike many commodities, energy has hard numbers to work with. Specifically, you can determine the amount of energy in oil, gas, coal, etc., and figure out which are more or less expensive as fuels. Granted the substitution can be a little sticky. You don't switch from unleaded gasoline to natural gas in your tank based on daily prices. But if trends continue long enough, a natural gas vehicle could become an option. There are about 5.8 million BTUs of energy in a barrel of oil. So you would expect a barrel of oil to cost about 6 times the price of a million BTUs of natural gas (the standard unit of measure). So why is oil over $100/bbl and gas is two bucks? This is 50:1 in price compared to 6:1 energy, so you could say natural gas should be over $16 and at current prices is a screaming bargain.<br />
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What caught my attention was the production cost of these shale gas wells - the <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8212" target="_blank">breakeven price</a> is over $8 per MMBtu. So you have North American natural gas that is worth $16 in energy, requires $8 to produce, and is selling for $2. This challenges everything I think I know about economics.<br />
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Maybe when you see a twenty-dollar bill on the sidewalk you shouldn't think it over too much, just pick it up and put it in your pocket. But I've played gas ETFs a couple of times before, thankfully with very small stakes, and never won. Experience tells me I don't know what I'm doing. Fundamentals say this gas price is unsustainably low and must go up. The real question with all investing is not what but when? I think I'm talking myself into another small-money gamble here, all the while knowing it will probably break my heart once again.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0